| 3rd |
9.0F (Dirt) Breeders' Cup Distaff
($2Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 8 |
Take Charge Lady (Prado) | McPeek |
3:1 |
35.0 |
99.4 |
53.6 |
11.7 |
1.3 |
9.0 |
210.2 |
N |
| 4 |
Azeri (Smith) De Seroux |
6:5 |
33.0 |
59.5 |
69.0 |
9.1 |
5.3 |
22.5 |
198.5 |
N |
| 5 |
Imperial Gesture (Bailey) | bin |
4:1 |
30.3 |
78.6 |
46.1 |
14.9 |
2.9 |
6.8 |
179.6 |
N |
| 2 |
Summer Colony (Velazquez) | Hennig |
5:1 |
32.1 |
62.7 |
51.7 |
8.8 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
166.1 |
N |
| 1 |
Two Item Limit (Douglas) | DiMauro |
30:1 |
25.3 |
78.4 |
30.4 |
4.8 |
10.2 |
0.9 |
150.0 |
N |
| 6 |
Mandy's Gold (Santos) | Gorham |
12:1 |
33.7 |
41.3 |
54.5 |
10.1 |
7.0 |
2.3 |
148.8 |
N |
| 7 |
Starrer (Valenzuela) | Shirreffs |
30:1 |
27.9 |
71.4 |
31.0 |
6.7 |
5.0 |
0.9 |
142.9 |
N |
| 3 |
Farda Amiga (Day) | Lobo |
12:1 |
22.6 |
77.4 |
36.9 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
142.6 |
N |
| The computer surprised me
somewhat by giving the nod to Take Charge Lady over Azeri. Her
CLASS score was significantly larger than the rest, based on
her 1.5 million career earnings. This race is obviously
stacked with speed, since the notorious speedball, Azeri, was
only good enough to earn the third best speed score, behind
Take Charge Lady and Mandy's Gold. Azeri does earn the best
FORM score, based on her near-perfect record. She should be
the favorite, but my computer program sees her as vulnerable.
Last year bettors were rewarded for looking for value. If I
were to do so this year, it would be with Mandy's Gold because
of her second best SPEED score and morning line odds of
12:1. |
| 4th |
9.0F (Dirt) BC Juvenile Fillies
($1Million) 2yo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 4 |
Storm Flag Flying (Velazquez) |
McGaughey, |
1:1 |
21.4 |
107.1 |
54.7 |
8.9 |
0.0 |
15.6 |
207.7 |
N |
| 10 |
Westerly Breeze (Albarado) | Nafzger |
12:1 |
18.7 |
63.7 |
25.7 |
8.6 |
13.7 |
1.3 |
131.8 |
N |
| 2 |
Ivanavinalot (Cruz) | O'Connell |
10:1 |
22.6 |
54.0 |
42.8 |
7.9 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
128.8 |
N |
| 1 |
Santa Catarina (Bailey) | Baffert |
4:1 |
22.2 |
56.4 |
28.1 |
6.7 |
2.3 |
3.9 |
119.6 |
N |
| 11 |
Appleby Gardens (Migliore) | Pletcher |
50:1 |
17.9 |
71.2 |
25.1 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
119.5 |
N |
| 8 |
Buffythecenterfold (Garcia) | Stute |
12:1 |
30.7 |
44.6 |
34.2 |
4.3 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
115.0 |
N |
| 5 |
Humorous Lady (Solis) | Smith |
20:1 |
26.2 |
32.0 |
46.8 |
5.7 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
111.5 |
Y |
| 6 |
Ruby's Reception (Thompson) | Jones |
15:1 |
20.0 |
38.5 |
40.2 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
105.8 |
N |
| 7 |
Sea Jewel (Valenzuela) | Shirreffs |
50:1 |
19.7 |
37.1 |
26.4 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
0.3 |
91.2 |
Y |
| 3 |
Composure (Smith) | Baffert |
5:1 |
20.3 |
31.3 |
29.3 |
5.3 |
0.0 |
3.1 |
89.2 |
N |
| 9 |
Atlantic Ocean (Espinoza) | Baffert |
20:1 |
20.2 |
33.0 |
20.1 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
78.5 |
Y |
| Storm Flag Flying comes in
with the dominant scores in CLASS and FORM. She looks like a
legitimate heavy favorite, largely untested in three perfect
efforts to date. However, this race went to a long shot last
year, and these are two-year olds after all.
Buffythecenterfold earns the top SPEED score, with Humorous
Lady second, but neither has proven they can hold their speed
around two turns. Westerly Breeze comes in with a strong LAST
score and could be coming to form. Could be value at
12:1. |
| 5th |
8.0F (Turf) Breeders' Cup Mile
($1Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 2 |
Beat Hollow (GB) (Bailey) | Frankel |
6:1 |
36.9 |
91.3 |
36.1 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
176.1 |
N |
| 10 |
Rock of Gibraltar (IRE (Kinane) |
O'Brien |
1:1 |
39.5 |
71.4 |
42.1 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
15.9 |
173.2 |
N |
| 1 |
Forbidden Apple (Nakatani) | Clement |
15:1 |
41.9 |
81.2 |
22.8 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
1.1 |
157.7 |
Y |
| 4 |
Good Journey (Day) | Dollase |
8:1 |
36.8 |
52.3 |
32.7 |
15.8 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
142.8 |
N |
| 13 |
Landseer (GB) (Prado) | O'Brien |
8:1 |
59.5 |
53.1 |
22.6 |
5.3 |
0.0 |
2.0 |
142.6 |
N |
| 8 |
Del Mar Show (Valenzuela) | Mott |
20:1 |
35.5 |
44.4 |
24.7 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
112.8 |
Y |
| 7 |
Aldebaran (Chavez) | Frankel |
15:1 |
36.0 |
30.2 |
27.3 |
4.2 |
5.7 |
1.1 |
104.4 |
Y |
| 14 |
Nuclear Debate (Stevens) | Vienna |
30:1 |
33.7 |
39.2 |
16.4 |
7.6 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
98.7 |
N |
| 12 |
Dress To Thrill (IRE) (Smullen) |
Weld |
30:1 |
34.6 |
20.0 |
34.4 |
1.0 |
8.0 |
0.5 |
98.5 |
Y |
| 11 |
Touch of the Blues (FR (Desormeaux) |
Drysdale |
20:1 |
35.7 |
30.5 |
15.2 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
0.8 |
94.2 |
N |
| 9 |
Boston Common (Douglas) | Pino |
50:1 |
44.3 |
16.8 |
25.3 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
92.7 |
Y |
| 6 |
Green Fee (Velazquez) | Peitz |
50:1 |
38.4 |
13.1 |
21.5 |
5.3 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
78.7 |
N |
| 3 |
Medecis (GB) (Solis) | Head-Maarek |
15:1 |
27.6 |
17.1 |
30.5 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
77.0 |
Y |
| 5 |
Domedriver (IRE) (Thulliez) | Bary |
15:1 |
28.9 |
13.9 |
21.8 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
66.8 |
N |
| Another surprise, courtesy of
my computer, emerged when my program put Beat Hollow ahead of
Rock of Gilbraltar in overall score. My computer liked Beat
Hollow for his CLASS score. He has earned some respect there,
based on his $1.8 million in career earnings. Rock of
Gibraltar earns the best FORM score by being 5 for 5 in 2002,
and 10 for 12 lifetime. My computer did not give him much
credit in his LAST score for his most recent wins, even though
both were graded events in Europe. Landseer comes in with a
strong SPEED score, followed by Boston Common. These two
should separate themselves from the pack based on a clear
speed advantage. Good Journey should be a good value, at 8:1,
based on his strong LAST score. |
| 6th |
6.0F (Dirt) Breeders' Cup Sprint
($1Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 10 |
Orientate (Bailey) | Lukas |
5:2 |
60.2 |
63.0 |
20.5 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
7.7 |
159.8 |
N |
| 6 |
Xtra Heat (Vega) | Salzman, |
5:1 |
61.3 |
55.4 |
26.4 |
7.4 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
159.1 |
N |
| 5 |
Touch Tone (Chavez) | Werner |
30:1 |
50.7 |
64.9 |
25.9 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
151.9 |
Y |
| 9 |
Kona Gold (Solis) | Headley |
6:1 |
45.6 |
72.6 |
21.9 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
3.2 |
143.5 |
N |
| 8 |
Bonapaw (Melancon) | Miller, |
6:1 |
57.8 |
45.6 |
21.5 |
10.4 |
4.6 |
3.2 |
143.1 |
N |
| 12 |
Swept Overboard (Nakatani) | Dollase |
5:1 |
45.0 |
61.0 |
21.4 |
4.3 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
137.2 |
N |
| 4 |
Carson Hollow (Velazquez) | Dutrow, |
20:1 |
63.0 |
31.3 |
35.2 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
135.1 |
N |
| 11 |
Crafty C. T. (Valenzuela) | Zucker |
15:1 |
52.1 |
42.8 |
21.3 |
5.6 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
124.5 |
N |
| 2 |
Kalookan Queen (Smith) | Headley |
8:1 |
50.8 |
31.9 |
27.0 |
8.2 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
120.3 |
Y |
| 13 |
Day Trader (Day) | Lukas |
20:1 |
54.1 |
24.8 |
17.1 |
6.8 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
104.5 |
Y |
| 1 |
Thunderello (Prado) | Lake |
50:1 |
50.5 |
16.6 |
30.7 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
103.3 |
Y |
| 7 |
Wake At Noon (Ramsammy) | Katryan |
50:1 |
42.4 |
32.0 |
20.1 |
5.7 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
100.6 |
N |
| 3 |
Disturbingthepeace (Espinoza) |
Vienna |
15:1 |
46.2 |
24.7 |
25.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
98.1 |
N |
| The computer gave the CLASS
nod to Orientate over Xtra Heat because she has had a hard
time putting together a decent sized field to run against her
and has beaten fewer rivals overall. The computer says all the
speed is with Orientate, Carson Hollow and Xtra Heat and then
a decent drop to the next tier. Should set up for a brisk
pace, but not record-setting early on. Gygistar comes in with
six wins in seven starts to get the top FORM score, but the
computer didn't respect his class. The LAST score points to
Bonapaw and Kalookan Queen as legitimate contenders at a
price, both coming in off big wins. |
| 7th |
10.0F (Turf) BC Filly and Mare Turf
($1Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 12 |
Kazzia (GER) (Chavez) | bin |
5:1 |
41.8 |
88.9 |
42.2 |
8.7 |
8.0 |
3.6 |
193.3 |
N |
| 6 |
Golden Apples (IRE) (Valenzuela) |
Cecil |
5:2 |
21.3 |
59.2 |
36.4 |
6.6 |
15.4 |
7.3 |
146.1 |
N |
| 5 |
Banks Hill (GB) (Bailey) | Frankel |
3:1 |
16.2 |
70.3 |
33.5 |
3.3 |
10.4 |
6.1 |
139.7 |
Y |
| 4 |
Dublino (Desormeaux) De Seroux |
12:1 |
19.2 |
49.5 |
42.2 |
0.4 |
15.8 |
1.5 |
128.6 |
N |
| 11 |
Starine (FR) (Velazquez) | Frankel |
12:1 |
22.8 |
53.1 |
24.3 |
4.7 |
6.4 |
1.5 |
112.9 |
N |
| 2 |
Islington (IRE) (Fallon) | Stoute |
9:2 |
26.4 |
48.5 |
26.1 |
4.9 |
0.0 |
4.1 |
110.0 |
N |
| 1 |
Riskaverse (Guidry) | Kelly |
15:1 |
23.5 |
35.6 |
30.2 |
7.2 |
4.0 |
1.2 |
101.8 |
N |
| 3 |
Turtle Bow (FR) (Soumillon) | Rohaut |
15:1 |
26.6 |
27.0 |
34.6 |
6.1 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
95.4 |
N |
| 7 |
Gossamer (GB) (Spencer) | Cumani |
15:1 |
24.3 |
40.2 |
28.4 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
94.9 |
N |
| 8 |
Zenda (GB) (Hughes) | Gosden |
12:1 |
19.1 |
37.9 |
26.5 |
6.2 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
91.1 |
N |
| 9 |
Chopinina (Ramsammy) | Fehr |
50:1 |
25.6 |
29.3 |
24.4 |
10.7 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
90.4 |
N |
| 10 |
Owsley (Prado) | Schulhofer |
50:1 |
23.4 |
29.2 |
24.6 |
7.1 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
84.7 |
N |
| Although just fourth choice
in the morning line, the computer program loved Kazzia,
awarding her the top score in three categories. To her credit,
she has racked up a huge amount of earnings in just six
starts. The next best SPEED scores go to Islington and Turtle
Bow, but not by a large margin. Golden Apples and Banks Hill
are solid performers, with good scores in every major
category. Chopinina looks like a horse to watch, coming in
with a huge LAST score. And that effort was the Atto Mile
where she nearly wired the boys, taking place at 55:1
odds. |
| 8th |
9.0F (Dirt) Breeders' Cup Juvenile
($1Millon) 2yo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 9 |
Sky Mesa (Prado) | Ward, |
3:1 |
22.2 |
71.9 |
35.5 |
7.1 |
0.0 |
6.5 |
143.0 |
N |
| 14 |
Toccet (Chavez) | Scanlan |
6:1 |
20.9 |
52.2 |
29.3 |
7.3 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
115.5 |
N |
| 13 |
Wando (Migliore) | Keogh |
15:1 |
20.6 |
55.1 |
30.7 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
112.7 |
N |
| 3 |
Hold That Tiger (Fallon) | O'Brien |
12:1 |
22.9 |
58.6 |
22.2 |
7.1 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
112.5 |
N |
| 1 |
Whywhywhy (Day) | Biancone |
6:1 |
23.2 |
40.8 |
30.7 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
107.7 |
Y |
| 8 |
Lone Star Sky (Guidry) | Amoss |
15:1 |
20.9 |
48.3 |
28.2 |
5.0 |
3.0 |
1.3 |
106.6 |
N |
| 11 |
Tomahawk (Kinane) | O'Brien |
15:1 |
22.7 |
52.6 |
23.0 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
103.5 |
Y |
| 6 |
Vindication (Smith) | Baffert |
4:1 |
23.1 |
23.6 |
35.5 |
3.7 |
0.0 |
4.8 |
90.8 |
N |
| 10 |
Zavata (Stevens) | Biancone |
20:1 |
23.0 |
29.9 |
27.3 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
1.0 |
88.4 |
Y |
| 2 |
Kafwain (Espinoza) | Baffert |
12:1 |
20.7 |
34.8 |
22.5 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
84.5 |
N |
| 7 |
Van Nistelrooy (Velazquez) | O'Brien |
15:1 |
19.9 |
33.6 |
27.3 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
83.1 |
Y |
| 5 |
Bull Market (Bailey) | Baffert |
12:1 |
25.8 |
30.2 |
16.6 |
3.9 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
79.4 |
Y |
| 12 |
Most Feared (Valenzuela) | Werner |
30:1 |
19.9 |
19.0 |
23.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
72.8 |
Y |
| 4 |
Listen Indy (Solis) | Mandella |
30:1 |
19.2 |
18.2 |
21.6 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
63.3 |
N |
| The computer warmed up to Sky
Mesa based on his strong CLASS and FORM scores. Hold That
Tiger also earned the (CLASS) respect of the computer based on
his wins over huge fields, and strong earnings per start. Bull
Market looks like a clear early leader based on his SPEED
score, but my computer doesn't think he has enough class to go
the distance. Toccet looks like a complete package, earning
second overall score without dominating in any of the big
three factors. Toccet does come in with the best LAST score
based on his strong win over nine foes in the Champagne. He
looks like value with 12:1 odds in the early line. |
| 9th |
12.0F (Turf) Breeders' Cup Turf
($2Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 5 |
High Chaparral (IRE) (Kinane) |
O'Brien |
8:5 |
53.1 |
128.1 |
69.3 |
8.0 |
0.0 |
11.1 |
269.6 |
N |
| 4 |
Golan (IRE) (Fallon) | Stoute |
3:1 |
37.4 |
125.7 |
46.4 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
5.9 |
216.1 |
N |
| 2 |
Ballingarry (IRE) (Desormeaux) De
Seroux |
5:1 |
59.8 |
65.8 |
44.8 |
11.1 |
8.8 |
3.5 |
193.8 |
Y |
| 7 |
With Anticipation (Day) | Sheppard |
6:1 |
36.9 |
88.3 |
37.2 |
7.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
175.0 |
N |
| 1 |
Denon (Prado) | Frankel |
5:1 |
36.3 |
50.4 |
42.5 |
11.9 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
148.2 |
N |
| 6 |
Perfect Soul (IRE) (Velazquez) |
Attfield |
50:1 |
34.6 |
40.2 |
54.8 |
7.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
137.1 |
Y |
| 8 |
The Tin Man (Smith) | Mandella |
15:1 |
42.1 |
20.4 |
51.3 |
9.7 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
124.6 |
N |
| 3 |
Falcon Flight (FR) (Valenzuela) |
Burke, |
12:1 |
29.6 |
49.9 |
27.2 |
10.5 |
5.4 |
1.5 |
124.0 |
N |
| High Chapparal earns the top
spot, based on big CLASS and FORM scores. The top SPEED score
goes to Ballingary with High Chapparal second. The next
highest SPEED score is a big drop from these two so these two
should get clear easily. Denon earns the best LAST score and
will likely get away unnoticed for a good price. |
| 10th |
10.0F (Dirt) Breeders' Cup Classic
($4Million) 3UPyo |
odds |
speed |
class |
form |
last |
conn |
line |
total |
Jock |
| 11 |
Came Home (Smith) | Gonzalez |
4:1 |
25.1 |
58.7 |
39.5 |
4.6 |
0.0 |
4.7 |
132.6 |
N |
| 7 |
Medaglia d'Oro (Bailey) | Frankel |
7:2 |
25.3 |
64.2 |
31.0 |
0.4 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
131.0 |
N |
| 3 |
War Emblem (Espinoza) | Baffert |
3:1 |
25.8 |
65.6 |
26.5 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
128.6 |
N |
| 9 |
Harlan's Holiday (Velazquez) |
Pletcher |
10:1 |
19.9 |
57.0 |
33.7 |
8.0 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
120.5 |
N |
| 10 |
Hawk Wing (Kinane) | O'Brien |
5:1 |
21.5 |
50.7 |
39.8 |
2.9 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
118.7 |
N |
| 5 |
Perfect Drift (Albarado) | Johnson |
20:1 |
20.0 |
40.3 |
32.9 |
11.6 |
3.5 |
0.9 |
109.3 |
Y |
| 6 |
Macho Uno (Stevens) | Orseno |
20:1 |
13.8 |
60.2 |
29.9 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
106.7 |
N |
| 12 |
Milwaukee Brew (Prado) | Frankel |
15:1 |
20.0 |
43.9 |
23.9 |
5.9 |
3.5 |
1.3 |
98.4 |
Y |
| 8 |
Evening Attire (Bridgmohan) | Kelly |
8:1 |
20.3 |
26.6 |
29.4 |
16.2 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
94.7 |
N |
| 1 |
E Dubai (Chavez) | bin |
12:1 |
28.6 |
26.4 |
34.4 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
93.9 |
Y |
| 4 |
Dollar Bill (Day) | Stewart |
30:1 |
18.1 |
37.3 |
23.7 |
5.8 |
2.7 |
0.6 |
88.1 |
N |
| 2 |
Volponi (Santos) | Johnson |
50:1 |
23.1 |
15.2 |
27.4 |
5.7 |
1.8 |
0.4 |
73.6 |
Y |
| This one looks like a great
race to handicap, and probably a great one to watch. Came Home
comes in at the top based on strong scores in all categories.
His FORM and LAST scores indicate he is in great shape coming
into this one. The computer had a hard time separating Came
Home and Medaglia D'Oro in a couple of categories. These two
should sit just off the pace. E Dubai looks like he is going
to try and steal this one the way he stole the Suburban, and
(coincidentally) the way War Emblem stole the Derby. War
Emblem has the speed to run at him, and will have to if he
wants a shot. I feel a little vulnerable the way the computer
snubbed Evening Attire. Those of us humans who saw his effort
in the Gold Cup were likely impressed, but the computer
dismissed him for lack of class. Perfect Drift slips in
unnoticed, but if you investigate his strong LAST score, you
see he is coming in off a career effort in the Indiana Derby.
He could be a sleeper at great odds. |
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