By Ralph the Cat

The Bird should arrive at MNR around noon on Friday. Woolley gave the Bird his final work at Churchill Downs Monday morning, an impressive 4f work in 48.4. The gelding galloped out 5F in a titillating 1:01.4 with Jamie Theriot up. Jamie Theriot, a likely backup to Mike Smith, didnt say much more than “hes fantastic” after dismounting from the gelding Monday morning. The gelding figures to put in his 5th and final work over MNRs surface early next week. This will be MNRs first Kentucky Derby Winner to run in the Grade II West Virginia Derby. The race is set for Saturday August 1st, with an early post time. But a cake walk will be unlikely, the locals think Mike Smith is too patient for MNRs egg-shaped oval…

-Ralph the Cat

By Ralph the Cat

Those who think the Derby can only be won by 4 of the 20 entries are sniffing paint again.  Well, it was a group of 5 contenders, but just moments ago I Want Revenge was scratched, so now the experts have it narrowed down to 4 contenders.  However, I cant help but think the race is as wide open as any Derby I’ve ever witnessed.  Before I Want Revenge scratched today we had 8 horses coming into the Derby off either a GI or GII victory.  Not to mention we still have 5 horses that are coming into the Derby off a second place finish in either a G1 or G11, including names like Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and Desert Party.  Never have we seen so many horses come into the Derby at their best.  Last year we had so many horses run big in one of their preps only to flop in their next prep.  Searching for a horse that could settle and make a run in last years Derby included who?  Colonel John who was coming off the synthetic surfaces or maybe Dennis of Cork shipping in from Hawthorne?… I mean com’on, gimme a break.  This year we’re loaded with horses that can settle and make a big run, the list is literally to big to attempt to list, the only horses that cant are maybe 3 or 4 horses that are listed at 50-1.  

I Want Revenge seemed too tough to beat, but now that he’s scratched I’m shooting for some connections that want revenge.  Friesan Fire, who will probably go off as the second choice has the early speed and post position to find a nice spot to settle in, not to mention the horse loves the off track and has one of the best trainers in the world.  Friesan Fire has won 3 straight Graded stakes, and figures on capturing his 4th straight in about 5 hours from now.  Who runs second?… well, all but 3 are alive.  You have horses that some claim to have “no chance” like Advice who is 30-1 and closed from last to first to win the Lexington.  West Side Bernie, who finished only a length behind I Want Revenge, but sits at 30-1 this morning or Mr. Hot Stuff, another 30-1 shot who only finished 2 lengths behind Pioneer of the Nile.  Not to mention the 2 Saeed Bin Suroor runners who dominated Nad Al Sheba.  Then the more logical horses from Musket Man to Papa Clem to General Quarters to Dunkirk to Pioneer of the Nile.  Ya sure, 4 contenders.  One thing I want you to think about today, will you ever get 3-1 on Friesan Fire again?  Good luck today, and I mean that.       

-Ralph the Cat

by Ralph the Cat

So, the experts say horse racing is dying, last year they decided the breed was dying too.  Well, since I’m no expert, I figured I’d waste a few minutes of my life suggesting a few things for next year, because if I’m wrong, who the hell cares.  By the way, the only time an “expert” in horse racing sticks his chin out is when they suggest something that can never really be proven.  Well, when I’m right about what I’m going to suggest, I want you to refer to me as an expert for the rest of my life.  When I die, I want you to mark on my tombstone, Ralph the “Expert”, rather than Ralph the “cat”.  Because 50 years later I don’t want them digging my corpse up because they think someone accidentally buried a cat in my family plot. 

 So anyways, here’s the deal, since horse racing is dying, and synthetic tracks aren’t safer then dirt according to the experts.  I just want to predict 2 things.  First, breakdown ratios over synthetics will be at a lower rate then over dirt across the nation.  Number 2, the boldest one of the two, Handle will be up across the nation.  So there it is.  What will we say if I’m right?  Horse racing is growing? its rebounding?  I don’t know, we’ll leave that to the experts.  Everyone else has the world of horse racing figured out, I just live in it.

By Ralph the Cat

 We all strive to be successful handicappers.  I have to laugh each time I hear these peculiar handicappers say “handicapping is an art” or “handicapping is a science”.  I often think they’re just trying to get in touch with their intellectual side when they make those statements.  Yes, I’m sure there’s science and art involved in handicapping, but last I checked, science can’t measure the unpredictable, and how ever you want to define art as, there’s no one on the planet that has mastered the “art” of handicapping.  If you want to define art as a “craft” or a “trait” then go for it, but a craft or a trait is usually something one can master. 

The newest one I heard was that handicapping is a philosophy.  Last I checked the philosophy of something has a set laws that can prove it.  The only law of handicapping is that no matter what the outcome of the race is, someone’s going to be pissed. 

 If anything, handicapping is a hit and miss based on theory, a proposed methodology with an unverified explanation.  

 One mans theory of handicapping utilizes a methodology of figures, Beyer figures.  Beyer figures have led more blind players astray then any factor in horses racing.  Super-trainers, jockeys, crooked connections, vets, none of them add up to the amount of mislead bets than that of Beyer figures.  Beyer figures are the single most misleading bit of information in American racing. 

 When one handicapper even remotely suggests Beyer figures are misleading or not worth a nickel, one is subject to “you don’t know how to use them”.  The claim is that when used properly, you can employ them in a useful manner and that those that doubt them don’t know how to use them properly or fail to understand the core concepts of them.  This might be the biggest bullshit in the handicapping world.  One thing that I’m confident I could predict is that Andy Beyer will not come close to picking this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, just like that last decade or more.  If the man that created the “Beyer Figures” can’t utilize the numbers to churn a profit or suggest winners, then why believe they are “a large part of successful handicappers”.  The truth of the matter is, they are the most overrated bit of handicapping information known to man.  They have led more bettors astray and caused heavy money to go in the wrong direction because of one concept, it’s a methodology based on science, math and human opinion.  A Beyer number suggests nothing but one mans opinion of a race based on information he chose to use.  One can only suggest that his numbers are used far more than they need to be.  I can’t help but think, the ability to read and digest the information from a past performance is becoming a lost line of attack.

 Beyer figures, credible? Sure, one mans methodology based on opinion is always credible. 

 Ya, and I’m a cat

Much has been written recently concerning what’s wrong with horse racing, and not without justification.  There are, without a doubt, many flaws in need of repair.  But let’s focus on some positives for a moment and look at some things that are right about the sport we love.

1.)  Bet a little, win a lot…..Sure, you can do that with the lottery or a slot machine, too, but that’s pure luck.  There’s a great feeling of satisfaction that comes with handicapping races correctly and winning as a result.  Long live the $.50 Pick Four!

2.)  The fun of going to the track…..Not only is there the excitement of the races themselves, but it’s a great place for people-watching, a microcosm of society.  Rich, poor, winners, losers, and everything in between.

3.)  ADWs…..If you have a computer, bet and watch from the comfort of your own home.  I know, there are ADW wars going on among themselves and with the horsemen, and yes, you have to maintain multiple accounts if you want access to all tracks.  But what better mental exercise is there than to sit at your computer on a snowy Monday night and handicap a Pick 3 at Mountaineer. (Come to think of it, handicapping any race at Mountaineer at any time is the ultimate mental challenge.)

4.)  Guys like Liam Durbin…..I can hear the brown-nosing accusations already, but this gentleman is the real deal.  Ever since the days of the Digital Chalk Line, Liam has been providing sound info and innovation to horseplayers at little or no cost.  Racing needs more people like him.

5.)  The animals themselves…..magnificent…..beauty, speed, grace, athleticism…..all in one package.  I have recently entered into a partnership to claim a horse to race at Charles Town.  I’ll be a 1% owner  (last of the big spenders.)  But I’ll tell ya, when I see that horse coming down the stretch with the colors of my stable, it will be the thrill of a lifetime.

So for those of us with a passion for this game, there is indeed a lot that is right with it.  Oh yeah, I almost forgot…..

6.)  Maylan Studart

Later…..richinboston

By Ralph the Cat

Both men have earned great success in our sport, but both appear to be at a war with words.  It’s hard to look like a fool when you’re up against Richard Dutrow, but Andrew Beyer manages too.  Dutrow, who in 2008 trained both the top 3 year old Big Brown and the top sprinter Benny The Bull sent out This Ones For Phil in the Sunshine Millions Dash this past weekend.  After the even money favorite You Luckie Mann and Ju Jitsu Jax set early fast fractions of :22.23, :44.96 and :56.75, the fast charging This Ones For Phil cruised by to score in 1:09.10 at odds of 12-1.  This Ones For Phil earned a career best Beyer of 117 and finished a second off the track record. 

 It didn’t take long for the name calling to begin.  Andrew Beyer made statements in a recent article that This Ones For Phil’s performance was everything that’s wrong with American racing.  Beyer noted that before this performance This Ones For Phil’s highest Beyer figure was an 81 set in his 2 year old season.  He also made note that this performance was a 15 length improvement from his prior effort.

 Dutrow spoke out several days later suggesting there were several things that got the 3 year old gelding to improve while also noting Beyer’s number could be off.  Dutrow suggested the rigorous training and racing during his 2 year old season caused him some minor problems and weight lose that he was able to improve with a few months of down time.

 It occurred to me that Beyer might be more caught up on the horse earning the 117 figure than the horses’ actual performance.  I took a closer look to see just what Beyer is so mad about.  Is it the number or the performance?  There’s two questions that need answered.  Is it unrealistic to think the horse could improve and is the number even accurate?

 Let us look at the improvement first, because there’s no doubt the horse made an improvement.  The horse started out in Kathleen O’Connells barn, an 11% trainer in 2008.  The horse broke its maiden in July with an impressive 6 length victory in only his 3^rd start as a 2 year old.  His next start was a 5^thplace finish in 100K stake race, where he only ran 3 lengths behind a horse called “You Luckie Mann”.  His next start he stretched out to a mile distance where he blew clear to win by more than 4 lengths in a non-restricted 2 year old stake race at Calder.  After his first stakes win going 1 mile he stretched out even further to run 2^nd in another stakes race and then a disappointing 5^th and a 3^rd in his next two route races.  The horse finished 2008 with 2 wins including 1 stake victory and $90,340 in 8 starts.  Richard Dutrow and his “Posse” approached Kathleen O’Connell and company to purchase the 2 year old stakes winner for what is believed to be in the 6 figures.  The horse spent two and half months training in the Dutrow barn before exploding to an impressive victory that Beyer called “everything wrong with American racing”.  The horse ran 8 races in less than 5 months as a 2 year old and won a 2 year old stakes race in that time with an 11% trainer.  Is it that hard to believe Richard Dutrow got this horse to win a non-graded restricted stakes race such as the Sunshine Millions Dash by 2 lengths in his 3 year old debut?

 Is Beyer’s methodology even accurate or useable for that matter?  They say you can’t compare Beyer numbers from track to track and from week to week.  So then why fuss about them?  Beyer rewarded Benny The Bull a 115 in 2007 after winning by more than 4 lengths and setting a track record of 1:08.2 at GulfstreamPark in the state restricted-Sunshine Millions Sprint, which is a race with no age restriction.  Yet, This Ones For Phil runs a 1:09.1 and only wins by 2 lengths in a state restricted stakes race for 3 year olds and receives an incredible 117.  Hell, Curlin hadn’t received a Beyer figure of more than 117 since his win in the Breeders Cup Classic in 2007, where he earned a Beyer figure of 119.  Is it me or is Andrew Beyer losing his mind over a flawed methodology that he created?

 The last thing that gets me is Beyer claims the horse improved 15 lengths in his first start with Dutrow.  His last 4 starts were in stake races at the route distance.  Most importantly, his last race was a 1 1/16^th turf stakes.  How can we conclude a 15 length improvement was made in his recent 6 furlong dirt sprint win when he hadn’t run a sprint in more than 5 months?  Isn’t this horse racing 101?  Oh, by the way, he beat “You Lucky Mann” by 2 lengths in this brilliant performance this past week, which is the same horse he lost to by 3 lengths in his last 6 furlong race more than 5 months ago.  The horse improved 5 lengths more than “You Lucky Mann” did over the course of 5+ months with the help of Richard Dutrow, a Kentucky Derby winning trainer.  Earth to Andy Beyer, did you even look at the horse’s past performance lines before you screamed “cheater”?

Ralph

I’ve as much a right to be angry as anyone, having driven all that way to see the race and going on record a couple of places about how I thought BB would get the job done.  But after the dust settles, most rational minds leave all the silly conspiracy theories and cheating plots behind and realize it was just a horse race that didn’t go the way just about everyone thought it would. 

I’ve already heard the grumbling about how Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, threw the race for some financial gain.   This is because the odds of 1:4 made it impossible for him to cash again by a simple, large, win wager as he had done in the Derby and Preakness.

However, the notion that Dutrow would throw the race for his financial gain is dumb.  It has two big problems.

For one, there is the question of how he would do it.  I suppose there is physical or chemical tampering but that would be pretty easy to figure out, and it was not indicated for much of the race.  The horse certainly seemed raring to go at first.  Other than that, he would need a lot of co-conspirators like the jockey and the owners.  I suppose Kent Desormeaux would be willing to give up a shot at riding a Triple Crown winner for a few bucks.  Yeah, right.  And even if he was able to get some conspirators to go along, how does throwing the race translate to financial gain?  Can you play the don’ts in horseracing?

Next question would be why?

Dutrow may have a dirty past but that doesn’t make him stupid.  How much money would it have to be worth to ditch a Triple Crown?   Gimme a break.  I know I’m applying my moral standards to Dutrow in saying this, but training a Triple Crown winner has no monetary equivalent.  Further Dutrow would run the risk of being banned from racing, shunned by the sport, fined, and potentially serve jail time, while throwing away the chance to train the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years… just to cash in on some shady back-door transactions.  Sorry.  Not buying it.

As we headed out of the park, I heard the ever popular grumble… “NYRA fixed it… I hope they made a bundle off of all of us suckers…”  Or something like that.  Another dumb reaction.  NYRA’s overall financial impact for what happened will undoubtedly be hugely negative over the long run.  What to do with all those Big Brown tee shirts and ball caps left on the racks… and all the lost wagering in New York racing circuits if they were ever implicated in a cheating situation.

Here’s my theory… the horse lost the race fair and square.

I definitely blame Dutrow and Desormeaux for the loss, but it was not anything intentional.  They just played it entirely wrong.  The horse wanted to run and they made him go slow.  Kent could have just cruised on the rail, but he tried to get him clear running room to the outside.  A reasonable approach since it had been working previously, but it was not the right approach in the Belmont, given that the turns are so long and wide and luck (good or bad) had already handed them rail and that getting outside when he tried to get there was an awkward move.  It looked like a battle of wills between Kent and Big Brown and a series of clunky moves for the first mile.  BB was bothered and frustrated and maybe even confused by the time they hit the far turn.  I think that, and maybe the heat, was enough for BB to say “the hell with it!”

This sort of thing happens at race tracks all across America every day.  Jockeys go to post with a certain set of instructions, sitting atop the best horse in the race, but things go awry and no effort on the part of the jockey seems to correct it.  The horse loses his mojo and it’s game over.  It really happens all the time.  It is just a shame that it happened to a potential champion on a day when the world was watching.�

The last time I booked a trip to Elmont, New York was to watch Smarty Jones take a shot at the Triple Crown.  The whole nation was abuzz with Smarty fever.   I took the opportunity to have dinner with some good friends, Andy and Monica.  We talked about old times and Smarty Jones.  About 20 hours later I shuffled out of Belmont Park like so many, my head hung low. 

As an experienced horse racing enthusiast, I knew it was over when they turned for home and Birdstone was gobbling up ground on Smarty Jones.  The heavy favorite was fried by a blistering pace.  Trudging out to my car, my stack of souvenier $2 win tickets still in my hand, I knew there would be no objection, no disqualification.  No doubt it was over, but it was still hard to let go.   I knew I’d have to face Andy and Monica’s three year old, Calvin, and try to explain what happened.  I’d made the mistake of talking up Smarty Jones to Calvin the night prior. 

“No, Calvin, Smarty Jones won’t be able to try next year.  It doesn’t work that way.”

That one was the worst ever, but there have been many close calls in recent years.  Each one seems to suck more life out of the Triple Crown hopeful.  Instead of giving us another Triple Crown winner, racing has given us horrific accidents like those of Barbaro and Eight Belles.  This year we have a great shot at a Triple Crown winner and it feels to me that the emotion surrounding his shot at doing it is somewhat subdued.  It could be that the nation is just afraid to get their hopes up. 

But my spirits have never been better about seeing a Triple Crown winner.  Even though each near miss is followed by the usual steady stream of theories why the Triple Crown has become too hard, (breeding, not enough rest between races, damaging surface) I let it roll right off my back.  Because it simply doesn’t make any sense.  I find the Triple Crown finishes in recent years to be extremely encouraging.  For example – since  1998 the winner of the Kentucky Derby has gone on to win the Preakness more often than not.  In another two years, the winner of the Preakness has gone on to win the Belmont.  

Point Given and Afleet Alex just missed in the Derby but then crushed their competition in the Preakness and Belmont.  Afleet Alex almost fell to his knees in the Preakness and then recovered to pull away.  Point Given never lost another race in his life after dropping the Derby.  These were super horses that just couldn’t get it done in the Derby.  But how can one fail to see that these horses were vastly better than their peer groups?  

If winning the Triple Crown were truly unachieveable, there would not be such a tight shot pattern in the outcome of the Triple Crown races.  The results point to the simple truth that there is clear differentiation in the development of three year old racehorses.  There are stand outs.  There are freaks.

I’ll go on record to say that if Big Brown stays healthy enough to make it to the Belmont starting gate, he will easily win the Triple Crown this year.  But even if he doesn’t it is just a matter of time. 

So I’m off to New York again to witness history.  Tickets are booked.  I’m looking forward to dinner with Andy and Monica again.  Calvin is older now and I’m not as worried about his heart breaking if Big Brown gets run down in the stretch.  But he has a little brother now, Phillip, who will be cheering for Big Brown without really knowing why or understanding the significance of what Big Brown will be attempting.  Without consciense, I’ll get Phillip all pumped up for the Belmont.  The emotion he will feel with the win I expect to happen is worth the risk of another Smarty let-down.  And if Big Brown disappoints us, ice cream’s on me.   Again.

Year Derby Winner – Preakness Winner

1998 Real Quiet – Real Quiet

1999 Charismatic - Charismatic

2000 Fu Peg – Red Bullet

2001  Monarchos – Point Given

2002  War Emblem – War Emblem

2003  Funny Cide – Funny Cide

2004  Smarty Jones – Smarty Jones

2005  Giacomo – Afleet Alex

2006  Barbaro - Bernardini

2007  Street Sense – Curlin

2008 Big Brown – Big Brown

Here are some thoughts on the contenders in the 2008 Kentucky Derby…

1. Cool Coal Man - likely pace casualty, but at least he got the rail when all the other speed will be to the outside making sure Big Brown gets a miserable trip.  Bluegrass tossout (another year, another “I don’t get it” Bluegrass result).  Can’t see him getting a piece but he could play the rabbit.
2. Tale of Ekati - Another run like the Wood and he could factor, but I think the winner will come from further back than where this guy likes to hang out. 
3. Anak Nakai - my computer program picked him last but I think he is not that good.  Does not belong here.  But I hope some day I can be a wealthy horse owner and can have a horse with enough earnings to qualify for the Derby so I can enter him and hang out at all the Derby events and hear people say my horse does not belong.  Yes, that would be sweet.
4. Court Vision - He could get it done.  Has the breeding to run all day.  But that is the problem, the race is usually over and he is still running all day.  The trick will be to get him to run sooner in the day.  Would not be a huge shock.
5. Eight Belles - She’s no Rags To Riches.  My program picked her out of the money in the Oaks.  So imagine how she compares to colts.  Lots of backing but I don’t think so.
6. Z Fortune - strong as a 2yo, and seems to have improved as a 3yo.  Likes to find trouble, partially due to his late running style.  Arkansas Derby was wide both time and still almost got it done.  Good value at what will likely be >15:1.
7. Big Truck - There are much better horses running today with the word “Big” in their name. 
8. Visionaire - Closed ground in the Bluegrass, and has shown some ability to pass horses late, but looks like it would take a big pace collapse.  Reminds me of Giacomo.
9. Pyro - Even if I toss the Bluegrass result (as everyone does every year for every horse these days) I’m still not convinced he is good enough.  Louisiana Derby result seems like forever ago.  Was strong as a 2yo.  Not so sure he is a strong 3yo.
10. Colonel John - I’m convinced he is more than a plastic surface phenom, something we all strive to be.  But I’m not sure he is fast enough.  Untested east of the Mississippi is a red flag for me.  Great works at Churchill, but has not faced the same caliber of horses as many in here.
11. Z Humor - there are better horses in the race today with the letter Z in the front of their name.
12. Smooth Air - definite wise guy play.  Second place effort to Big Brown in Florida Derby got him a 105 Beyer.  Hello?  Says something for including both Florida Derby exacta horses in your exotics today.  Odds of 20:1 look good too.
13. Bob Black Jack - Speed casualty.  This is not the year to be a speed horse in the Derby!  As if any year it is a plus, this year in particular.
14. Monba - Don’t like the name.  What’s a Monba?  Bluegrass opportunist gets Pletcher another shot at sustaining his 0-fer standings in the Derby.
15. Adriano - the only thing I like about him is the fact that Prado opted off of horses that looked better on paper to ride him today.  I’m not a big jock handicapper, but Prado is that good.  It’s like when the best looking girl in high school goes to the prom with a zit-faced kid that plays in the band.  What’s he got that I ain’t got?
16. Denis of Cork - My sleeper special.  Closes with a bang when he closes, which is every time except the Illinois Derby.  Got a poor trip, but they hand out poor trip vouchers at the starting gate in the Derby.  Still, at 20:1 I think he belongs in my exotics.
17. Cowboy Cal - Pletcher’s other Keeneland opportunist and other best shot at remaining winless in the Derby.
18. Recapturetheglory - One of Big Brown’s big problems.  Speed to his inside from a ridiculously outside post.  If you want to bet a speedy horse in the auxiliary gate, choose one whose name has two adjectives in it.
19. Gayego - Big Brown’s other big problem.  See statement above about which speed horse to bet from the auxiliary gate.
20. Big Brown - I hope he doesn’t win just so that we don’t have a Derby winner with such a lame name.  Aren’t most horses relatively big, and a good number of them also brown?  Every year we get the super freak, undefeated but lightly raced horse that crashes the Derby scene.  I avoid them every year and it has never cost me a penny.  This year that freak is in the far outside post with two speedy horses to his immediate inside position and the best speed horse in the race sitting on the pole all alone.  If he is good enough to win today, he should win the Triple Crown.  So get a $2 win ticket on him just in case.

 I recommend spreading your exotics far and wide and hoping Big Brown flops.  Exotics will pay well in that scenario.  Even if Big Brown wins, putting the right place and show horses with him could pay very well.  Best of luck!

With many trainers and owners choosing to be more choosy about the number and placement of their aspiring Derby horses’ prep races it is increasingly important for these horses to win those big races.  Some of us handicappers like to a horse hold form once if not twice.  For many horses in this year’s Derby hunt, the pattern looks very similar… one or two nice finishes in Grade I company and one or two wins in Grade II or Grade III company.  Followed by a huge flop in major prep race.  Is it asking all that much for a winner to act like a winner?

Someone has to win those big prep races.  So obviously someone stepped up.  That much is certain.  Problem is that if it is not the horse who was supposed to win, the favorite looks remarkably vulnerable and a horse that no one was even thinking seriously about suddenly becomes a contender.  Damn!

Here are some examples of the pattern I describe:

Case 1 - Pyro.  Nice finish in the Champaigne and then the BC Juvenile. Wins in a Grade II and Grade III.  His moment in the sun was the Blue Grass Stakes.  Sent off as an even money favorite.  The result:  ran up the track.  Even given the creepy synthetic surface at Keeneland, this result was tough to digest.  Hard to find a viable excuse.

Case 2 –  Court Vision.  Well bred and perfect running style for the classic distance.  First in Grade II and a Grade III stakes races.  Third in the FOY but closed well to impress some people.  His prove-it race came in the Wood Memorial.  Second choice but well bet and a fairly weak field to boot.  Result:  another strong close that fell short.  For the Court Vision fans, his prove-it race now moves to the first Saturday in May.  Agh.  Not the best time to do it.

Case 3 – El Gato Malo.  First in minor prep, then first in a Grade III and second in a Grade II.  Sets him up for his big “get ‘er done” opportunity in the Santa Anita Derby.  Result:  A 4-wide bid that flattened out to finish fifth.  Another beaten favorite limps into Louisville.

Case 4 – War Pass.  Eh, by now you get the point. 

It isn’t all bad.  There have been a few horses who didn’t wilt under the heat lamps.  It took some looking but here are a few winning favorites.

Case A – Big Brown.  Not much build up to the Florida Derby, just a couple of blowout wins in maiden and allowance company.  But that was enough to make him the 3:2 favorite in the Florida Derby.  That says something about the level of talent in the race, but that’s another story.  Result:  Big Brown held serve and crushed the field, overcoming an outside post and fast early fractions.  But some handicappers won’t touch a horse so inexperienced coming into the Derby.  I’m usually one of them.

Case B – Colonel John.  First in a minor stakes race.  First in a Grade III.  Second in a Grade I.  Finds himself a well bet second choice in the Santa Anita Derby.  Result:  convincing win in nice, off the pace, Derby style.  Nice going Colonel! 

Case C – Gayego.  Like the others, proven in lesser graded company, including a gutsy effort to finish second in the San Felipe.  Finds himself a tepid favorite in the Arkansas Derby.  But at least he got it done from there.  When it was show time, he showed up.  It is one thing to beat a soft field and not settle any debate about your ability to win the Derby.  It’s another to lose to the soft field.

I thought one of the promises of artificial surfaces is to reduce the soreness that racing causes in horses, so they can stay healthy and get back on the track more quickly.  Polytrack (and the like) also promise to reduce the risk of catastrophic injury to the competitors.  Both of these promises, if delivered, should increase the number of prep races in which any given horse is able to compete. But it is too soon to tell if either of those promises holds any weight, and it won’t help anyone this year.

In the mean time, how bad has this year’s prep season been that if I’m looking for a horse that can hold form I have nothing better to choose from than a horse with three races lifetime and two west coasters?  Yuk.  On the bright side, it could be a good year to find a sleeper at a nice price.