Interesting facts

[Capper Al]

Merry Christmas. I made my side dishes for Christmas dinner yesterday and am waiting for the crew to show up or wake up. Meanwhile, I'm re-reading Glendon Jones book, Horse Racing Logic (1989). He points out the following:

Favorites win 1 out of 3 races, 33%
Top Public handicappers win ratio is, generally, between 25 and 30%.
Random selections without handicapping is around 13%, 1 out of 8
Track takeout in 1989 was around 15%
So what, anybody capping for a while knows this. I'll add in that the average capper's win ratio is between 20 and 25%. Nothing to add up here. But when one reflects on this it sounds good. After all, if random is 1 out of 8 and average cappers are hitting 1 out 4 that means handicapping cuts the uncertainty in half. It does. Here it comes. The average top Public handicapper's loss is around 15% just the same as random selections. The public cappers are good and hit more winners but their horses are mostly favorites while the random hits are fewer but will contain long shots. So we get the thrill of picking more winners and the track still gets its takeout.

[Grindstone]

You have to take into consideration that public handicappers picks get more action that a random handicapper's would. So that deflates their payoffs. This takes nothing away from your observation. I'm just tossing it out there in defense of the public handicappers because I am one. I don't know how much more action a public handicapper's plays get, or how much it might affect the payoffs. At some tracks it is probably pretty substantial. Others, not so much.

[Capper Al]

You have to take into consideration that public handicappers picks get more action that a random handicapper's would. So that deflates their payoffs. This takes nothing away from your observation. I'm just tossing it out there in defense of the public handicappers because I am one. I don't know how much more action a public handicapper's plays get, or how much it might affect the payoffs. At some tracks it is probably pretty substantial. Others, not so much.

I agree that the public handicappers are over bet. I have all the respect in the world for public handicappers making their picks usually 2 days ahead of time come rain or shine. I also respect the Public's tote-board favorites with their 33% winners year after year. What's interesting in the book is the suggestion that going by the number might get one more winners but not more money. Like his title suggest, there is Horse Racing Logic outside the numbers. This is what one must use if they are to be profitable.

[lsosa54]

Merry Christmas. I made my side dishes for Christmas dinner yesterday and am waiting for the crew to show up or wake up. Meanwhile, I'm re-reading Glendon Jones book, Horse Racing Logic (1989). He points out the following:

Favorites win 1 out of 3 races, 33%
Top Public handicappers win ratio is, generally, between 25 and 30%.
Random selections without handicapping is around 13%, 1 out of 8
Track takeout in 1989 was around 15%
So what, anybody capping for a while knows this. I'll add in that the average capper's win ratio is between 20 and 25%. Nothing to add up here. But when one reflects on this it sounds good. After all, if random is 1 out of 8 and average cappers are hitting 1 out 4 that means handicapping cuts the uncertainty in half. It does. Here it comes. The average top Public handicapper's loss is around 15% just the same as random selections. The public cappers are good and hit more winners but their horses are mostly favorites while the random hits are fewer but will contain long shots. So we get the thrill of picking more winners and the track still gets its takeout.

Can't argue too much with your points. I believe the winning favorites rate is up to 34% now with a loss of 16 cents on the dollar according to a 25,000 race sample analyzed by Jeff Platt over at JCapper.

The average field size seems to be about 8.25 by just doing a simple average of the latest Rick's Longshot Chart over at HTR, so the random hit rate would be closer to 12%.

I have no idea what the public cappers' win rate is, but I agree with you and Liam on the difficulty of selecting a couple of days ahead with no scratches and possibly no morning line and you have to 'cap all races. Guys like Jeff Siegel and Bob Mieszerski are very good public cappers in Socal and have been for years, but even they don't always bet their advanced selections when it comes to post time.

As to takeout, I guess the minimum win is now 15.43% in SoCal with exotics higher. I only bet win so I would say my average takeout is around 17% at the tracks I play. Since I bet lower priced horses, breakage averages 1.5% to 2%, sometimes higher depending on the odds. To make any kind of profit, I'm looking at 19% off the top to start - I'm depressing myself!

[Capper Al]

Ainslie warned handicappers not to over average. He said don't be like the man that drown crossing the river after his friend told him that on average the river was only 5 feet deep. The Public assigns odds well to horses most of the time. They base them on numbers like Speed, Class, Jockey, etc. These numbers are somehow intuitively added up or literally added up by the cappers. Getting a bet based on numbers may get more winners, but it is going to be difficult to find value. I wonder which is the better ROI for EP, Total points vs. dominate factor alone?

[Grindstone]

One of the neat side benefits of the new contest website (www.cap2win.com) is that I'm automatically tracking win ROI for E-ponies and Tip Tweets. I will be able to separate it out by track eventually. I'll keep you all posted.