Grindstone
04-29-2012, 10:35 PM
Time to Bounce the Bounce Theory
Liam Durbin
The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 138th time on May 5th this year. Over the course of those many races, many myths and theories have emerged about characteristics a horse must have or what patterns he must follow to win the Derby. It is only logical that any sporting event that gets as much publicity and pubic scrutiny as the Kentucky Derby would eventually develop some folklore around it. The Derby is so popular of a puzzle to solve that new metrics such as the Dosage Index have been invented for the sole purpose of predicting the outcome of the Derby. And then the Dosage Index itself became the basis for another mysterious Derby statistic. But after 138 years, the creation of new myths has about run its course and each year, more of the existing ones get blown up. Last year Animal Kingdom won the Derby despite never having raced on real dirt prior to the race. Another one down.
It is acceptable when analysts use statistics to discuss the fact that a certain event has not yet happened, but it is extremely misleading when they use that statistic to predict that it should not happen in the future. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx is an example of a myth that was frequently used to predict the future when it really had no business being used for anything other than observing history. Experts would discuss the entries for an upcoming Derby and would say that in 18 years no Juvenile winner had ever won the Derby. But anyone with half a brain and a grasp of fifth grade math would see the problem with this approach. The vast majority of Juvenile winners are never entered in the Kentucky Derby. Of those that have made it to the starting gate, they have run reasonably well and their chances in the Derby are certainly no worse than any other horse. Street Sense put and end to that pointless myth in 2007.
Another popular Derby theory that continues to this day, despite any foundation in reason or statistics is the Bounce Theory. The Bounce Theory says that a horse will regress off of a really strong effort and throw in a dud in his next start. This theory is often applied to the Derby to explain why an otherwise strong contender should be avoided in the Derby. This year’s bounce candidate, it seems, is Bodemeister, who comes to the Derby off a nine length victory in the Arkansas Derby.
Read the rest on the blog (http://www.e-ponies.com/blog/).
Liam Durbin
The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 138th time on May 5th this year. Over the course of those many races, many myths and theories have emerged about characteristics a horse must have or what patterns he must follow to win the Derby. It is only logical that any sporting event that gets as much publicity and pubic scrutiny as the Kentucky Derby would eventually develop some folklore around it. The Derby is so popular of a puzzle to solve that new metrics such as the Dosage Index have been invented for the sole purpose of predicting the outcome of the Derby. And then the Dosage Index itself became the basis for another mysterious Derby statistic. But after 138 years, the creation of new myths has about run its course and each year, more of the existing ones get blown up. Last year Animal Kingdom won the Derby despite never having raced on real dirt prior to the race. Another one down.
It is acceptable when analysts use statistics to discuss the fact that a certain event has not yet happened, but it is extremely misleading when they use that statistic to predict that it should not happen in the future. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx is an example of a myth that was frequently used to predict the future when it really had no business being used for anything other than observing history. Experts would discuss the entries for an upcoming Derby and would say that in 18 years no Juvenile winner had ever won the Derby. But anyone with half a brain and a grasp of fifth grade math would see the problem with this approach. The vast majority of Juvenile winners are never entered in the Kentucky Derby. Of those that have made it to the starting gate, they have run reasonably well and their chances in the Derby are certainly no worse than any other horse. Street Sense put and end to that pointless myth in 2007.
Another popular Derby theory that continues to this day, despite any foundation in reason or statistics is the Bounce Theory. The Bounce Theory says that a horse will regress off of a really strong effort and throw in a dud in his next start. This theory is often applied to the Derby to explain why an otherwise strong contender should be avoided in the Derby. This year’s bounce candidate, it seems, is Bodemeister, who comes to the Derby off a nine length victory in the Arkansas Derby.
Read the rest on the blog (http://www.e-ponies.com/blog/).