Beginner's Paper and Pencil (or Spreadsheet) Systems

[Capper Al]

Ready to jump in and play the ponies. Have you read a beginner's book like Handicapping 101 by Brad Free? That would help. Or have your buddies taught you about speed, class, form, prep, jockeys and trainers? Let's assume you have made it this far. It will be better if you can work a spreadsheet. But if not, you could use a calculator with paper and pencil.

How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. Same with handicapping. There are many different types (conditions) of races:

Maidens
2 year olds
3 year olds
Claiming
Allowances
Sprints
Routes
Dirt
Poly tracks
Turf
Stakes
Graded
and others



Start with something common like sprints on dirt leaving out Maiden and 2 year olds for now. You'll need to cut down the field to a few contenders. Here's one fact you can start with. The average winner usually improves about 8 speed points from their last race.

Take the second fastest horse last race and subtract 8 speed points. Eliminate any that don't measure up unless they had trouble in the last race then go back to their second to last race.

Eliminate any horse who hasn't raced and worked in 22 days.

Eliminate any horse who finish 15 lengths or more in their last race unless they had trouble. Or 10 lengths or more in both of their last two races. The lengths behind rules can be ignored for large drops in class as long as the horse was close up (1 length or closer) at the second call in their last race.

Now you should have your contenders. Take the best speed of the last two races for each horse. The best speed last two is your horse. If there is a tie, break it with the trainer's win percent.

Is this profitable? Probably not. It's just a start. Practice with about 20 races on paper and tweak from there. You should be on your way to enjoying and understanding the game. You'll tweak for a very long time. Good Luck. And yes, after all that work, you still need luck.

[Capper Al]

Race #6 at Pimlico 5/19 Dirt Sprint using the beginner's Dirt Sprint system.

#3 INNOCENT MAN (ROSARIO) | BIANCONE
#1 SCARAMAGNA (PIERMARINI) | VITALI
#4 LAURIE'S ROCKET (NAKATANI) | STEWART
#8 IL VILLANO (FLORES) | CROWELL

Spreadsheet:

4066

[Capper Al]

Let's tweak this one a little. After selecting your contenders, add the win percentages of the trainer and the jockey together. Take the top three as your top three picks. For a tie breaker, use best speed last two races. This is mainly a flip flop of connections and best speed last two. It can have some surprising outcomes. Please feel free to add any of your paper and pencil systems here.


Ready to jump in and play the ponies. Have you read a beginner's book like Handicapping 101 by Brad Free? That would help. Or have your buddies taught you about speed, class, form, prep, jockeys and trainers? Let's assume you have made it this far. It will be better if you can work a spreadsheet. But if not, you could use a calculator with paper and pencil.

How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. Same with handicapping. There are many different types (conditions) of races:

Maidens
2 year olds
3 year olds
Claiming
Allowances
Sprints
Routes
Dirt
Poly tracks
Turf
Stakes
Graded
and others



Start with something common like sprints on dirt leaving out Maiden and 2 year olds for now. You'll need to cut down the field to a few contenders. Here's one fact you can start with. The average winner usually improves about 8 speed points from their last race.

Take the second fastest horse last race and subtract 8 speed points. Eliminate any that don't measure up unless they had trouble in the last race then go back to their second to last race.

Eliminate any horse who hasn't raced and worked in 22 days.

Eliminate any horse who finish 15 lengths or more in their last race unless they had trouble. Or 10 lengths or more in both of their last two races. The lengths behind rules can be ignored for large drops in class as long as the horse was close up (1 length or closer) at the second call in their last race.

Now you should have your contenders. Take the best speed of the last two races for each horse. The best speed last two is your horse. If there is a tie, break it with the trainer's win percent.

Is this profitable? Probably not. It's just a start. Practice with about 20 races on paper and tweak from there. You should be on your way to enjoying and understanding the game. You'll tweak for a very long time. Good Luck. And yes, after all that work, you still need luck.

[Capper Al]

As updated in Post #3 using jky + Trn for final contenders.



Hol 7/7/2012 Clm 6f T Race #1

LR Spd Blgts Jky Trn J+T rnk
1 92.0 13 13 26 3
2 81.2 X 5 10 15 5
3 90.0 18 20 38 1
4 92.5 13 0 13 6
5 77.0 X X 12 4 16 4
6 86.3 16 20 36 2

elim Spd 84.5
Picks 3-6-1
by Post
(early)

[Capper Al]

Hol 7/7/2012 Alw 6f A Race #3
LR Spd Blgts Jky Trn J+T rnk

1 92.5 13 36 49 2
2 89.5 12 13 25 5
3 85.5 30 36 66 1
4 89.9 X 18 13 31 3
5 96.1 16 11 27 4

Elim Spd 84.5 Picks 3-1-5
by Post
(early)

[Capper Al]

Hol 7/7/2012 Clm 6f A Race #7
LR Spd Blgts Jky Trn J+T rnk

1 74.8 x 0 17 17 9
2 74.8 8 13 21 7
3 67.3 x x 5 2 7 12
4 82.6 x 11 13 24 5
5 67.6 x x 12 10 22 6
6 82.1 13 3 16 10
7 79.0 13 17 30 4
8 75.0 x 12 19 31 3
9 69.3 x x 9 7 16 10
10 75.0 x 5 16 21 7
11 75.0 14 40 54 1
12 80.8 18 20 38 2


Elim Spd 74.1 Picks 11-12-7
by Post
(Early)

[rmath]

Al are you saying that a horse improves 8 lengths or 8 Beyer points?
My findings only show an average of 4 to 4.5 lengths.

[Capper Al]

Al are you saying that a horse improves 8 lengths or 8 Beyer points?
My findings only show an average of 4 to 4.5 lengths.

Yes, I am. But I didn't do my own study on this. I read it in a few different books. Thanks for sharing your findings.

Does anyone have a paper and pencil system that they would like to share?

[Grindstone]

My paper and pencils methods are not really a system, per se, but a collection of observations and notes, typically written in the margin of the Daily Racing Form. I still enjoy paper and pencil immensely, although I really only practice is on the big races these days, the Derby in particular.

[Capper Al]

My paper and pencils methods are not really a system, per se, but a collection of observations and notes, typically written in the margin of the Daily Racing Form. I still enjoy paper and pencil immensely, although I really only practice is on the big races these days, the Derby in particular.

Well, what do you do when you do it? Using e-Ponies picks is fair game!

[Grindstone]

Well, what do you do when you do it? Using e-Ponies picks is fair game!

I certainly use E-Ponies, but not exclusively. My approach is something like this:

* one pass through - first observations, primarily on running style (speed/closer) and E-Ponies ranking
* second pass through - evaluation of class, dropping or rising
* third pass through - specifically looking for sleepers, any single characteristic that warrants inclusion (like a single strong race at a quality track)

Final pass - make my selection.

Nothing fancy about it.