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  • Derby Favorite?

    I'm pretty sure my computer program will put Gemologist on top for the Derby, largely due to his unbeaten record. I can't argue with that either, even though there were some strong performances yesterday, and in recent previous weeks. I must say, this year is a lot different from last year in terms of favorites holding form. The Wood and the Santa Anita Derby were both won by well-bet horses. And in the case of the SA Derby, the favorite represented himself very well and lost to another well-bet horse.

    So who do you like? And who do you think will be the favorite?

    For me, Gemologist will be the favorite. I'm not sure who I like. I have to see what the computer comes up with first.

  • #2
    I would have to say,oh-- thanks for having me back....anyways,would have to say with the Bluegrass and less so the Ark.Derby yet to run that this question is a little premature.


    But if they weren't,I would have a hard time seeing Feldsparologist as being the fave.

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    • #3
      The Bluegrass has not been relevant for several years.

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      • #4
        I'll be darned;did not know this.


        Then it matters not what Hansen does in this irrelevant race.

        And here I thought it may have some bearing on derby odds.

        Oh well.

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        • #5
          I'm here to help.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by collinwood_lauderdale View Post
            I'll be darned;did not know this.


            Then it matters not what Hansen does in this irrelevant race.

            And here I thought it may have some bearing on derby odds.

            Oh well.
            The only thing Hansen needs to do is come out of the race sound and ready for the Derby.

            Think Union Rags will be the undeserving favorite in the Derby. Not sold on his chances. Right now Hansen is my pick. Love how he set off the pace in his last victory. Will see if my thoughts change up to the Derby.

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            • #7
              I will have to see what other speed shows up for the Derby. If there is enough speed, I toss him out. But right now there does not appear to be all that much. Regardless of who goes off the favorite, it should be an excellent betting race, as usual. There should be five or six horses in the 6-1 to 8-1 range. So if you LOVE one of those horses, you can get your choice at good odds.

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              • #8
                Derby Future Wagers

                Alpha @ 10/1

                Daddy Long Legs @ 50/1

                Daddy Nose Best @ 20/1

                Gemologist @ 7/1

                Hansen @ 10/1

                Optimizer @ 30/1

                Sabercat @ 40/1

                Secret Circle @ 16/1

                Take Charge Indy @ 15/1

                Union Rags @ 17/4

                just a few of the MANY mights

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by canleakid View Post
                  Derby Future Wagers

                  Alpha @ 10/1

                  Daddy Long Legs @ 50/1

                  Daddy Nose Best @ 20/1

                  Gemologist @ 7/1

                  Hansen @ 10/1

                  Optimizer @ 30/1

                  Sabercat @ 40/1

                  Secret Circle @ 16/1

                  Take Charge Indy @ 15/1

                  Union Rags @ 17/4

                  just a few of the MANY mights
                  Those are already flattering odds for Hansen. I daresay there is much he can do in the BG to materially change those odds heading into the Derby except display distance limitations. If he wins, he might drop to 7:1 but Gemologist is still the favorite in the Derby. If he loses respectably, he stays the same. If he gives up a lot of ground in the stretch, win or lose, his odds shoot up to 15:1.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Grindstone View Post
                    I'm here to help.
                    !!


                    Are you shore?

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                    • #11
                      And one more thing... anyone that puts money on Union Rags in the futures pool at 17:4 is a moron. Sorry if some of you did. My point is that you can get 4:1 on him on Derby day, so why take the risk that he does not go forward to the Derby, or trains poorly, or track conditions on the day of the Derby are poor, or whatever? There is nothing that can happen between post time on May 5th and now that will push his odds below 7:2, so why take the risk?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by duncan04 View Post
                        The only thing Hansen needs to do is come out of the race sound and ready for the Derby.

                        Think Union Rags will be the undeserving favorite in the Derby. Not sold on his chances. Right now Hansen is my pick. Love how he set off the pace in his last victory. Will see if my thoughts change up to the Derby.

                        Huge Hansen fan since before the Juvy Mile.Is my no.1 choice, but if that dyslexic horse gets in----it may stress my noodle a little on who to take.The relevant Spiral Stakes looms large,although I still think it would be Hansen.


                        Hershey Bar is another interesting horsey to me and I think he runs in the absolutely irrelevant G-1 Bluegrass.

                        I think he will do very well....further disrupting my thinking process on the derby winner.

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                        • #13
                          no thoughts on the derby favorite, but i like i'll have another so far, i know west coast, normally shy away from them, but liked his SAD race. still early, lots of training todo.

                          good luck everyone

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                          • #14
                            I just know I should not say this, but for the life of me I can't understand why Feldsparologist would be the derby favorite.

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                            • #15
                              Well, I started this thread to express an opinion and to invite others to offer theirs. So far so good. I also figured I might convey some information and to learn some new things. Again - so far so good. The piece of information that I could have had but didn't have is that Union Rags is the favorite at the end of the Derby Futures wager. I find this very interesting. Apparently the force of will to make him the favorite is stronger than I suspected. But we have seen these things change in recent years. The final pool favorite is not always the Derby favorite, and the odds can swing too. I think this may happen with Union Rags. I mean, seriously, he was supposed to win the Juvenile but didn't. Then we was supposed to win the FOY, which he did. Then he was supposed to win the Florida Derby, which he didn't. I don't give my Derby choices that many excuses. Derby winners get the job done. Period. So I'm not on the Union Rags bandwagon. He may still win it but I don't think he should be the favorite based on his performance.

                              Now, on Gemologist. It is not rocket science. He's undefeated in five starts, including winning the Wood Memorial at short odds - and beating a horse that is also highly regarded in these discussions. That is often the recipe for being well bet on Derby Day and I predict it will be again this year. It does not mean I'll be betting him. I'm just saying he will be no worse than second choice. If he is second choice, I suspect it will be to Union Rags, who I've already suggested does not belong as the favorite.

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