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  • My Derby Analysis #KyDerby

    Agree if you like. Enjoy regardless.

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...,5791661.story

  • #2
    That's great - thanks Liam. Good luck everybody.

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks for your input. I've liked Dullahan for a long time. I do see Bodemeister being in the picture too, but if Dullahan gets the right pace to chase, he will close like a freight train. I won't dismiss Take Charge Indy though, simply because Bo-rail loves Churchill. Went The Day Well is my longshot. Big Brown won after only having raced 3-4 times...so I wouldn't write Bodemeister off because of inexperience as a 2-year-old. He has Bob Baffert for a trainer, so I won't be letting my favorite trainer off my ticket for sure.

      I do think your input is pretty spot on though, and thanks again for your input and time.

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      • #4
        Liam,
        When will your official picks be sent out for the Derby? I always look forward to receiving them in my email.

        Thanks,
        JC

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        • #5
          I'm not doing a feature this year. The computer picks are posted in the normal location, in the free picks page. My personal opinion is that Dullahan will catch the speedy types in the stretch. Hansen is my computer pick, and I don't think he can get it done. But I do admit that his current odds are higher than they ought to be for a horse like Hansen. He's starting to look like value.

          Comment


          • #6
            Liam,
            My paypal account was charged for the feature. Your expertise and insight in the race and all the horses will be missed. I am glad I have your book to review every year.

            Thanks,
            JC

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by jckuhn View Post
              Liam,
              My paypal account was charged for the feature. Your expertise and insight in the race and all the horses will be missed. I am glad I have your book to review every year.

              Thanks,
              JC
              Sorry about that. I'll make sure you get a refund.

              Comment


              • #8
                Speed seems to be holding up at the derby, so the closing style of Dullahan now worries me. Maybe Bodemeister will get the job done. I haven't really seen a closer win yet. Also, if Bo-rail hustles Take Charge Indy out of there, he just may shock the field..it's been done before, and he's run away with it.

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                • #9
                  It's been done before, but very rarely and never to my recollection against a field this strong. I'm sticking with my pick.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Grindstone View Post
                    It's been done before, but very rarely and never to my recollection against a field this strong. I'm sticking with my pick.
                    Bodemeister ran a really great race. Some folks are already taking shots at Mike Smith. It does seem odd he sent that horse out so fast. It wasn't like he needed to worry about Trinninberg wiring it.

                    My guy Dullahan ran well. I believe he was wide in the final turn. Not sure he would have run down the winner but I think he would have caught Bodemeister.

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                    • #11
                      I think Smith did send Bodemeister too fast. Trinninberg was absolutely no threat to win it. It messed up my ex. tri. and super.... I had Bode, Dullahan, and mentioned earlier my longshot play was Went The Day well....all three were there, but I didn't have the winner. I don't think we will see a triple crown winner this year...I think this horse is another Giacamo to be honest. A little bit longer race and Dullahan would have gotten both of them. Where in the heck did that I'll Have Another Come From...never on my radar, and certainly not with a first time rider in the Derby.

                      Oh well, I think right now I'll Have Another.

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                      • #12
                        I also think Martin Garcia would have done a better job with Bodemeister, but instead Baffert sticks him on a horse without a chance. Maybe Baffert needs to take some of the blame himself.

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                        • #13
                          I would never back a horse that has only raced in CA. Especially this year when there were so many better options. Dullahan was at least seven wide on the final turn.

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                          • #14
                            had the 5-6 there but thanks to I'll Have Another, "I will NOT have another" cause I lost it ALL!!!!!! LOL

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                            • #15
                              Agree it does not look good for a triple crown. But I do like the fact that this horse stays closer to the pace. Could help him in the Preakness.

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