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  • MODELING, DO YOU DO IT, IF SO...

    I asked this elsewhere, and feel that I can ask this here, without all the fluff too.

    Some of you I am sure use software that does the modeling for you, maybe you could tell me how easy it is for you to use and does it really help you at your track, and/or tracks.

    Some of you may design your own program in a spreadsheet, tracking your own info, this is beyond my current abilities with computer's and the spreadsheet programs, yet 1 day I hope to figure them out, but it will take me some time and major committment as I have attempted to use the Video Professor and was unable to learn Excell with it.

    To me modeling would be an awesome tool to see what and where your mone should be focused on, but then maybe modeling to me is different for you, if so please explain.

    For me it is finding the factors , if using a software program , that are winning constantly at your track for your type of race, and then breaking it down even further to Sex/class/age and seeing if certain factors are worth noting, such as...

    EP or Early in Jr. Sprints
    LP or Late for turf Route's
    1st or 2nd call in 6 furlong races

    There are so many options here that I think you understand , now my software has a download feature to help me , but I belive soon it will be improved upon even more, I can not wait, as this info could be the difference between winning and losing, or so I think.

    I admit I have beem lazy in trying to find this information , expecting to have software do it for me with just a few clicks here and there , then waalllaaaa there it is, but we know very few programs could do this, so do you use the old pen and paper method, or have you found a program to do this for you, what I myself has been looking for, because we now know I am lazy, (actually I'm time limited, and always felt that computer were supposed to help speed thing up for you, Forgive me for thinking this crazy thought) and but it would then need to have my programs factors in it, or does it, this is the main question, does it??

    How simple and easy can modeling a track be, say 5 tracks

    NYRA
    Woodbine
    Mountaineer
    California
    Florida

    Now I am told the 2 best here would be Woodbine and Mountaineer because of the length of the meets and consisitincies that could be seen though really modeling there.

    But are track model's the same as Handicapping model's

    Guess the info in them would tell you that

    Track Bias could be track model informationn, no?

    Is the track holding early speed or late speed, today , this week or the meet?
    How bout route's and or sprints, or muddy tracks play more to early speed say by 67% is this good model info, yes

    I guess it comes down to knowing your track, then learning your software and the factors that produce the winners, and why and how to see them properly to interpret them into a model of some sort.

    It may be just the info needed to narrow down your contenders to 1-2 horses from 4 or 5, for me this woud be awesome and for some of you I think you are already there, and sharing it , well maybe not, but I can almost attest that you got there from modeling in some way or another, if not please tell me, why not.

    Sorry out of time, hope this could start a nice thread here, as I see some very good cappers here, and they got that way from hard work, and maybe some luck, but mostly from years of hard work.

    I have only about 30 years of handicapping in me, yeah 30 years aready, dang,

    Patrick

  • #2
    Patrick,

    e-Pony picks might be based on a model because it uses point weights. I can't speak for Liam, but I'll be surprised if it wasn't.

    Comment


    • #3
      Thanks Al

      I should not post when I am tired and still reeling from a loss, as you see I tend to ramble if not curtailed quickly.

      Please forgive the ramblings above, they did veer all over the road, good thing I was not driving that way.

      Now as for E-Pony, I hate say that I have yet to really look at it, as me and BRIS are not seeing eye to eye, and I guess I just need to man up and pay them for what I feel was incorrect charges, but it was thr principle of the matter to me and 17.00 for something I did not buy, is just that something I did not buy, 2nd time this happened, the other time for only 10.00, but does anyone else notice this with them, forget that, this is not the place for that, I will pay them and move forward.

      Maybe someone could explain this site to me, maybe through SKYPE, I am "pktruckdriver", maybe PM me and we could talk about it on the phone as I am driving across America, and yes hands-free of course, the Volvo Truck I driver is 1 big Bluetooth device.

      Yes Al, to me modeling is a very important part of handicapping, it shows how really dedicated you are, and it just may be 1 of the key things that make some people winners and other's "not-profitable".

      patrick

      Comment


      • #4
        Okay it has been a week an nothing posted, no problem, it will give me more time for other things.

        It will save me from late night rambling too, none of us needs that.

        Patrick

        Comment


        • #5
          Here is today's track bias report for Aqueduct's 8th race.
          I think that it's similar to modeling, but just not as extreme.



          Now here's the problem.
          The chart tells us what type of runner is most likely to win the race depending on running style after the races were run.
          The chart also tells us which horses are likely to run the style needed to win according to the past races.

          What the chart can't tell is, will there be a five horse speed duel, or will #2 with 3 bullet workouts since her last race get an easy lead & steal the race?
          How about the ML fav #7, will there be enough pace for her to run at or will she have to go to the lead?

          What I'm getting at is that for the handicapper that doesn't have 10s of thousands of dollars worth of computer programs to collect, keep & decipher statistics modeling is a waste of time.

          The best that we can do is keep it simple, make educated guesses & only bet when the odds are in our favor.

          Comment


          • #6
            Thank you Sir

            Your reply is one I've gotten many times, and you seem to mention the Pace of Race , or if the race or horse will get the lead or and if another will be pressed and then go to the lead, to me Pace scenario's, which to me are very important in looking at the race to try and find the possible winning horses, and thus eliminating a few from contention in the process.

            It was my understanding Modeling could help one do this too, but as you state so many different software program are out there and give you this info, but then like you stated, you begin the information overload theory.

            I guess knowing your track and what wins there and what does happen from time to time could be enough, like how it handles wet/muddy/sloppy, and if you stayed with less than a 1/2 a dozen tracks, this info could become second nature, thus eliminating the need for modeling the track, the old saying of knowing track, for a serious player seem to only be a logical thing, though many I am sure do not, like myself included, and jusst recently have learned to not be so naive and become better informed or where I invest my money.

            Again thank you for your response, and for some people you are correct, modeling is not needed, for other's they need the info to help show them what choices to make, I am somewhere in the middle.

            Patrick

            Comment


            • #7
              Good stuff Spot Play. Sometimes the obvious just sits there in front of our face-- BRIS summary.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Capper Al View Post
                Patrick,

                e-Pony picks might be based on a model because it uses point weights. I can't speak for Liam, but I'll be surprised if it wasn't.
                Not exactly. Despite the rich data that the model can provide, the E-Ponies algorithm is pretty simple. What makes it a bit different is that it compares each horse against others in the race. This sounds like it ought to be the way all models work, but point systems are typically indifferent to current company. Points are accrued based on things that have happened in the horse's racing history. Then point totals are added up to separate the horses in the race. With my algorithm, components like speed, class and form are divided up by the contenders in the race based on their merit. So in a race with full fields, all horses get less of the pie. In small fields, all horses get more of the pie. A point system would be different, or so I believe based on what I know of them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Patrick
                  You talked about modlelling
                  This is a very good way to start and wiil save you money, time, and will reward you handicapping skills.
                  You have a computer that is given, you have brisnet account.
                  Start by dowloading the PP Generator it is free this will allow you to input the single data files into it at cost $1 per card these files can also be used with E ponies.
                  I will take this further if anyone is intrested the PP Generator is all you will ever need with the data files which you can also view on you screen.

                  bob

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Spot Play Paul View Post
                    Here is today's track bias report for Aqueduct's 8th race.
                    I think that it's similar to modeling, but just not as extreme.



                    Now here's the problem.
                    The chart tells us what type of runner is most likely to win the race depending on running style after the races were run.
                    The chart also tells us which horses are likely to run the style needed to win according to the past races.

                    What the chart can't tell is, will there be a five horse speed duel, or will #2 with 3 bullet workouts since her last race get an easy lead & steal the race?
                    How about the ML fav #7, will there be enough pace for her to run at or will she have to go to the lead?

                    What I'm getting at is that for the handicapper that doesn't have 10s of thousands of dollars worth of computer programs to collect, keep & decipher statistics modeling is a waste of time.

                    The best that we can do is keep it simple, make educated guesses & only bet when the odds are in our favor.
                    Yes use the concept KISS and get away from the way everone else handicaps races, Now Woodbine and Mountineer are great place to play this type game.

                    Bob

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by bob60566 View Post
                      Yes use the concept KISS and get away from the way everone else handicaps races, Now Woodbine and Mountineer are great place to play this type game.

                      Bob
                      Okay I got Brisnet account set up , but what files do I need single or multi ?

                      Also downloaded PP generator too, so ready for next level,

                      Patrick

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by pktruckdriver View Post
                        Okay I got Brisnet account set up , but what files do I need single or multi ?

                        Also downloaded PP generator too, so ready for next level,

                        Patrick
                        Data single PP

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Let me know when you have downloaded Mountinteer for Friday night and have it up on PP generarator as i will have the same thing

                          Bob

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            okay doing it now mtr, had gp too for friday, but doing ntr now

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Okay I did it, but now I am off to do other things, but will be online tomorrow, most of the day

                              Skype is "pktruckdriver"

                              Thanks

                              Patrick

                              Comment


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