Colonial race 1-2-3-5-6-8-9-10
1, Louannís Boot: Comes off a 5 month layoff to run over turf for just the second time. Doesnít show a lot of speed and could be left behind in this one.
2, One Sunday: Runs well at Colonial and at this distance. If heís on the lead things could get shaky as they near the wire. Links back up with Peltroche whoís familiar with him and shows adequate speed which may be enough to win.
3, Ronís Partner: Was dull in his return off the slight layoff and will need to show much more to be a threat. If he shows any early speed, heíll have company and have find a way to turn them back. Dropping from maidens to low level maiden claimers can help.
4, Original Ray: Has been pretty bad running for the Boniface barn but Iíll find excuses for him in most of his races. He should be too slow to beat these normally and could miss the superfecta
5, Quiet Storm: Vied for the lead on a tiring soggy turf course at Atlantic City and could improve if this course is firmer. Speed usually disappears by deep stretch and it will take a rated ride from Van Hassel to get him home with leaders
6, Viola George: Could run with leaders only to back out of the race. He should be short off the 5 month layoff and inexperienced rider may not help his cause.
7, Reasonable Guy: It doesnít appear he will have the stamina to last even at this short distance. Iíd be a bit surprise to see him finish with leaders.
8, Alton Ferry: Doesnít have a great turf pedigree and should miss the board barring a minor miracle.
9, Matlacha: First start for new barn and low percentage rider Musarro has a slight task at hand. He has a horse with some speed and with a smart ride can garner a win. I think the big threat is 2, One Sunday and if they maintain a pace he can handle can get to the wire before him.
10, Tooles Return: Could finish in the money for the first time in his turf career. Heís had one nice training session but this barn does poorly bringing its runners off extended layoff. May be fresh enough now finish in the superfecta/trifecta.
$2.00 win bet 2-9
$1.00 exacta wheel 2-9 / 2-3-5-9
.10 cent superfecta 2-9 / 2-3-5-9 / 2-3-5-9-10 / 1-2-3-4-5-9-10
$1.00 daily double 2-9 / 5-8
1, A Greater Affair: Has some turf breeding but has been running over dirt for his career. Barn doesnít ship winners and he could struggle at this level and distance.
2, American Emblem: Drops down and doesnít look like he can get this distance well enough to be considered a hands down winner. Appears to be a handful to ride and if Russell canít control him may miss the board.
3, Best Value: He hasnít raced since December 2008. Since being shipped to Charlestown is having a terrible time. He could surprise at this level and show up in the money but his barn does poorly shipping and returning runners from layoffs.
4, Club Tango: Makes the switch from dirt to turf and moves up in class. He rarely poses a threat to rivals and shouldnít be a threat today.
5, Rajasthan: Fogelsonger can get off the schinde today with a smart ride. Wooley drops him down to perhaps his cheapest and should ask Foglesonger to keep him off the lead if others want it. A rated ride can see him loom late with a big chance.
6, Sky Clipper: Was racing well at Laurel considering his competition. Has some late pace that may be enhanced with the move to turf. I canít endorse him for the win but give him a chance for the lower parts of the gimmicks.
7, Waywardwillie: May enjoy a little class relief here. Had a disappointing season at Tampa never finishing lower the double digits off the winner. He isnít running the same as he was for Edwards but could improve with the move to turf.
8, Only By Invitation: Should enjoy the pace and class relief in this one. He isnít running his strongest but with the return to Colonial could improve.
9, Exchequer: Shouldnít be fast enough to run with these.
10, Timely Wonder: Even with the move to turf shouldnít be able to run with these and should only have an outside shot for the superfecta.
11, Ceviche Forever: Shortens up slightly and with the class drop appears to be a big threat to these. Speed figures arenít the greatest.
$2.00 win bet 5-8
$1.00 exacta box 5-8
.10 cent superfecta : 5-8 / 5-8 / 2-3-5-6-7-8 / 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 cost $4.00
1, Carolina Crypto: Debuts for a barn that's doing well with its few starters at Colonial. Could show nice turf efforts later and I sort of like her chances in this weak group of runners.
2, My Lady In Red: Ward sends this obscurely bred filly to Colonial for her debut at age 4. Some decent work outs and she may be a little physically matured then others. I believe she can hit the board and Ward does well with first time starters. 3, Bellameina: She's been running pretty badly and I still have issues using her in this one.
4, Passion N Romance: Doesn't show enough speed to be looked upon an major player. She'll needs to take advantage of the class drop and hopefully catch some pace relief to make a forward move for a trifecta bid.
5, Family Girl: May be facing just a notch softer and tries running on grass for just the second time. I don't think she's fast enough to win and her efforts are too erratic to use her on top alone. But her speed figures are better then most in here and with an honest effort should hit the board.
6, S S La Casa Rosada: Should be too slow to run with these and would be a big surprise to me if she finished in the money.
7, She's Spontaneous: Should get enough class relief to run better then the vast majority of these. One turf efforts can be tossed due to the bad behavior probably burning her up before the race started
8, Samba In Tehran: Every so often she puts up a good effort. The thing is to catch her when she's ready to put up one of those efforts. Goes to a new barn and takes a big class drop. If she can be rated could run well at the shorter distance and new surface.
9, Marked Deck: She's a more consistent runner then most of these and comes off a nine month. She'll need a few races before she's in sharp enough form to be used.
10, Hippie Princess: Drops down and would need some pace help which she's not likely to get with this group. She doesnt show any more early speed since leaving the Fawkes barn but her return to turf could see it show up again. If it does she could hang on to keep a superfecta finish.
11, Starry Valley: Drops down in class and this possible front runner could have trouble keeping the pace and could get passed by enough runners to see her miss the board.
12, Out On Parole: Was out run in her debut and unless she improves a great deal shouldnít threaten these.
13, Coyote True Enough: Showed promise early in her career but things went down hill quickly after that. She should bring up the rear.
14, Frozen Ann: First time starter enters with some not so exciting work outs. Trainer sends out his first starter at this meet and Iíd be a bit surprised to see her run well enough to figure.
$2.00 win bet 1-7
$1.00 exacta box 1-7
.10 cent superfecta 1-7 / 1-7 / 1-2-4-5-7-8 / 1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11 cost $5.60
1, Kitty Pleaser: He fits at this level but may want to a little further the 5 Ĺ furlongs. He can inch toward leaders but will probably run out of ground before getting to them. If overlooked by enough may add some value to the superfecta.
2, Free Dubai: Gets some class relief but comes off an 8 month layoff. Races somewhat evenly and may like to go further to gain on tired runners. He should move forward off the class drop alone.
3, Make My Day: Should struggle with the move over to turf and against runners at this level. If he shows any semblance of early speed shouldnít be able to fend off closers. He should finish off the board.
4, Humming Along: No speed and should be of little impact.
5, C V Slew: Although not bred to run on turf could improve slightly. The class level should help him and if he adapts to turf could show up to finish in the money.
6, So Risky: Drops into easier but will need to improve a bit to win. Can move into gimmicks with a honest effort
7, Noble Tiger: May be rounding into sharp form and could appreciate the class drop. This may be the right time to use him if he has one more effort left in him. He doesnít seem to be a bad turf runner when running at the correct level.
8, Jake Rattle N Roll: Shortens up and returns to the turf where he was a decent runner versus tougher. Working out well and adds Lasix for his return. He can win from this post position if Garcia prompts him to go at the right time.
9, Orchestrated: Could lack just enough speed to miss hitting the board. Post position nine doesnít help but he should get some pace relief that can help him make a trifecta bid.
$2.00 win bet 7-8
$1.00 exacta box 7-8
.10 cent superfecta 7-8 / 7-8 / 2-5-6-7-8-9 / 1-2-5-6-7-8-9 cost $3.20
1, Formal Notice: Comes off the long layoff but races well on turf. If the barn can have him ready he should figure.
2, Sharpness: Shortens up and would need a clean race and improve. These could go to fast for him
3, In Denial: First time starter enters the fray with Lasix. His work outs are decent but not outstanding. And he could need more time to develop. I canít endorse him right now.
4, Grand Homecoming: Off the long layoff and tries the turf for the first time A few nice workouts leading up to his return. The inexperienced rider canít make any mistake.
5, Cjísspecial: Should be too slow to run with these.
6, Sneakiní A Smoke: I would like his chances much more if he had a more experienced rider. Iíd like to see him held off the pace and believes if that happens he can finish in the money.
7, Tizallaboutme: Ships in from Belmont and should be the post time favorite. He seems to have been rushed up after the bad start in his last but tire in the stretch. Catches a soft group and gets some class relief and should win this one easily. His race is in Sheldons hands.
8, No Name Tiger: He had one good effort versus maiden claimers at Tampa. He could rebound with the return to dirt after the poor outing on dirt at Calder. He isnít a threat to win but has a chance to finish in the money.
9, Blondeshavemorerun: Back routing after a relatively non-productive sprint campaign. Doesnít have the speed to win out right but should out run enough to figure in the exacta. Heíd need a big mistake from Sheldon riding 7, Tizallaboutme
10, Get A Lawyer: Ran with pace setters nicely in his last before stopping in mid stretch. He should be facing soft enough at a shorter distance to loom for a in the money finish, if Lopez can keep him running. A off the pace ride can see that happen.
$2.00 win bet 7
$1.00 exacta wheel 7 / 6-9
.10 cent superfecta 7 / 6-9 / 1-4-6-8-9-10 / 1-4-6-8-9-10 cost $4.00
1, Hogan Beach: Races evenly in her races and it seems doubtful she can win this one. But her late speed can probably see her make a mild gimmick bid
2, Jib: Tracked pace setters but just missed in her last. She had some nice work outs at Keeneland and todayís pace could set her up with a chance to win if Lopez can figure out the pace scenario early and rides her accordingly
3, La Blanqueada: Sheís just too slow, she'll have to beat me.
4, Naughty Nina: She fits at this level and can add value to the gimmicks if she comes off the layoff and runs well. Her barn is doing well shipping runners in off extended layoffs. I canít exclude her from exotics wagers versus softer rivals and an expected slower pace.
5, Sassifacation: Was just beaten in her last after setting a solid pace for the lionís share of the race but couldnít maintain it. She may need others to be just tired enough they canít some after her strongly enough to pass her right before the wire.
6, Cut For Luck: Sheíll need to be rated to win. Her past races all have some type of speed then fade comment with an occasional check or steadied one. A sharp ride from Foglesonger can make her a possible wire to wire threat.
7, Listentothewindblo: The shorter distance offers hope but Hoimeister will need all her skills to get a win. Set the pace but failed to maintain the lead versus tougher in the $50k Hilltop. She could be at her sharpest in the third off the layoff but Iíd look for a fair price before using her on top alone.
8, Glamorous Gal: She may have got going too late in the Hilltop but did end up passing 7, Listentothewindblo on her way to a show finish. May run stronger in her second off the layoff and shortens up and will probably need to be asked to go sooner.
9, Deeliteful Star: may not be fully ready in her first off a 10 month layoff. Her speed figures are a little low and the class level seems just a bit tougher then she can handle right now.
$2.00 win bet 6-7
$1.00 exacta box 2-6-7
.10 cent superfecta 2-6-7 / 2-5-6-7 / 1-2-4-5-6-7 / 1-2-4-5-6-7-8 cost $14.40
1, Frisky Thunder: Should be able to hold the lead if he gets one. But if he doesnít get the lead he rarely races from far off the early pace. With a clean path in the stretch can show others the way home.
2, Pleasant Strike: Chased 1, Frisky Thunder but ran out of real estate in their last at Delaware. Tacks on 1ĺ furlongs and if Hoimester uses his late speed tactfully may just get by leaders late. May not make this distance well enough to win but can figure with her best
3, Southwest: He fits at this distance and level but may need to show a little more to win. In his first off the layoff at Delaware, stalked leader but when asked to go came up empty. He has the wheels to win but his ability to pass leaders is in question.
4, Should Expect: He stretches out and takes off the blinkers. Could like the extra distance and may run well in his second off the layoff. If Rameriz rides well he could get into the superfecta.
5, Slouis: It looks like he isn't able to run with going this long but if he gets a better trip in his last could vie for the superfecta
6, Class Booper: Returns to flat racing after competing in steeplechase races for the last half of 2008. May be facing too tough to get the win but should return well rested and may last a lot longer then expected. If he's ready to run could surprise.
7, Mount Weather: Last time he competed neat or at this level was soundly beaten. But if he gets the right pace in front of him could run past these in deep stretch. Fongelsonger must ride well and keep him close enough to leaders to give him a chance.
$2.00 win bet 1-6
$1.00 exacta wheel 1-6 / 1-2-6-7
.10 cent superfecta 1-6 / 1-2-6-7 / 1-2-3-6-7 / 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 cost $7.20
$1.00 daily double 1-6 /7
1, Ada Claire: Got it together by November 2008 and has started to make some gains. Not a huge threat here but can hit the board and with any major mistakes from leaders the door to victory can open.
2, Diamond Or Gold: Raced well at Tampa on its hard to handle surface in her debut. Nicely bred and lightly raced filly makes the transition to turf. She hasn't raced in a year but this barn does well with its first time starters on turf and off long layoffs. I won't use her to win but will add her in gimmicks wagers
3, Medina Thunder: First time starter and Lasix user could be over matched facing so many experienced runners. I can only endorse for the superfecta
4, Over The Lea: Must find more speed to be a threat to win. The late triple digit speed figure earned in her last could prove false since she ran past a few tired runners.
5, Ton Of Money: Charlestown runner stretches out in her second lifetime race. Got knocked around in her last but I won't use that as an excuse and I can't use her to hit the board.
6, Chateau Ridge: She hasn't raced since July of 2008 where she led the way until the stretch. She could find the going tough off the long layoff. I expect her to go to the lead but should stop dead in her tracks before the stretch.
7, Million Seller: Comes back to the eastern seaboard to race. Graham has a good one here who just hasn't found a level where she can win. Homeister must not get excited and let her run her own race and they should be in good position to win.
8, Lookin Foxy: Perked up when placed on the grass last October at Laurel. Her speed figures are kind of low but she appears to be training well and could surprise.
9, Wingplow: First time starter hails from a low percentage barn but has some modest work out efforts. But in this field they look good enough to prompt me to use her in the superfecta cost prohibitive.
10, Island Breeze: Had some road issues and it may be used for an excuse. She should improve in her second lifetime start. I don't think she'll win but I like her chances to finish underneath.
11, Dixie Dumpling: Raced all over the track in her last sprinting and whatever chances she had went up in smoke. She returns to routing on turf and could rebound in form in a level she seems comfortable at. She could add some value to gimmicks.
12, Love's Blush: Comes off the layoff to try the turf for the first time. Trainer Jerkins has good stats bringing runners off layoff, first start on turf and second time routing. It looks like she's training a bit sharper then at this time last year. But I can only use her in the trifecta/superfecta.
13, Miss M V P: Shortens up and has to start her late run with vigor. She showed an much improve late run in her last which was her first on turf. A repeat of that puts her in with gimmick chances.
$2.00 win bet 7
$1.00 exacta wheel 7 / 1-10-13
.10 cent superfecta 7 / 1-10-13 / 1-2-8-10-13 / 1-2-4-8-9-10-11-12-13 cost $8.40
Stoney Lad A best horse I ever owned. R.I.P. Big Horse
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