BREEDERS CUP 2009 FEVER (11-07-09)

[canleakid]

The 2009 Breeders’ Cup – Why Late-Running Locals and Euros have the Edge

By Jim Mazur

European invader Raven’s Pass captured 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic In an unprecedented move, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup World Championship returns to the same venue —Santa Anita — that hosted the 2008 BC. This has caused grumbling and dissension among horsemen and players primarily because Santa Anita runs its dirt races over an artificial surface named ProRide. Connections of several top contenders including Rachel Alexandra have gone on record claiming they will not participate in this year’s Cup due to the artificial surface.
But despite the potential defections the show must go on and the 2009 Cup will soon be upon us in the same two-day format unveiled in 2008:

Day Two: nine championship races (open to both sexes) including the Classic on Saturday, November 7th.
Fourteen championship races in two days is a formidable task for horseplayers to be sure. The purpose of this article is to provide handicappers with a few key pointers based on the results of last year’s Cup and the history of the more established Cup races. For those readers desiring a more in-depth analysis, I refer you to our annual publication entitled Crushing the Cup 2009.
If 2009 plays out like 2008, then give an edge to those entrants that are locally based and/or with ProRide experience. The SoCal locals captured six of the eight ProRide races in 2008 with European invaders winning the other two.
Even runners that had shown success on other synthetic surfaces like Keeneland and Woodbine were up against it on the Santa Anita ProRide. Those shipping-in from recent preps at Belmont shot blanks, although several did hit the board.
Of the SoCal-based winners, several like Stardom Bound (Juvenile Fillies), Zenyatta (Ladies Classic), Midshipman (Juvenile) and Albertus Maximus (Dirt Mile) had run sharply over the ProRide in their final BC prep. Others like Ventura (FM Sprint) were based at Santa Anita and had worked sharply over the surface.
The home-field advantage didn’t produce the same results in the six turf races. Except for the inaugural running of the Turf Sprint, the local entrants got blanked. On the green, the European invaders dominated, capturing half of the events. Maram (Juvenile Fillies Turf) and Forever Together (FM Turf) were the only two Cup winners to ship in from the east coast.
Based on the historical results of previous Cup turf races held at Santa Anita, our 2008 edition of Crushing The Cup predicted this European success. Back in 2003 (the last time the Cup was hosted by Santa Anita), the Europeans had swept the three turf races offered (Mile, FM Turf, and Turf) with High Chaparral deadheating with SoCal-based Johar in Turf (the first-ever BC heater).
But the Europeans weren’t satisfied with just winning on the green in 2008. They also took home the whole enchilada in the inaugural edition of the BC Marathon (Muhannak) and the marquis event—the BC Classic (Raven’s Pass). The former was a European marathon specialist that had recently scored twice on synthetic surfaces in England and Ireland. The latter had raced only on the turf but had non-turf breeding (sired by Elusive Quality).
Running style was another big factor in last year’s BC World Championship. Of the eight ProRide races carded, seven were won by runners rallying from the back of the pack. Credit Juvenile winner Midshipman with one of the best performances of the weekend, as he was the only “wire-to-wire” winner. Table #1 below shows the beaten lengths at the key race calls for each of the ProRide winners.
Not a stalker in the bunch! Stardom Bound (Juvenile Fillies) earned honors for the “deepest close,” rallying from more than 12 lengths back early on. But there is an interesting common thread among most of these ProRide winners: seven of eight had taken the lead (or were within 1/2 length) by the time the field hit the stretch.
It was a similar story with the six turf races but not nearly as definitive: rally winners took four of those events. Table #2 (below) Goldikova (Mile) was one of the two exceptions, as she stalked the early leaders before pouncing on them in the stretch.
In Crushing the Cup, Peter Mallett and I develop and refine a “winner’s profile” for each of the BC World Championship races. One “key” factor for each race is outlined below.

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Races
Marathon (only 1 edition)
Breeding is the key for this 1-1/2 mile test of stamina.
Dirt Mile (only 2 editions)
Local runners with success at a flat mile should have the edge. Both winners of this event had competed against Grade 1 company earlier in the campaign.
Turf Mile (25 editions)
The mile specialist (be it domestic or European) with a 109+ Beyer (or 117 RPR) is your best play.
Juvenile (25 editions)
Look for a locally-based runner that fared well in the Norfolk.
Juvenile Turf (only 2 editions)
The European invaders didn’t show up for the first edition at Monmouth Park but came in force last year and took home first prize. Expect quality runners to cross the pond again in 2009.
Sprint (25 editions)
Look for a late-runner with one or more wins at 6 furlongs. Those coming into the race off a 45+ day layoff deserve a second look.
Turf (25 editions)
Grade 1 winner that also has enjoyed success at 1-1/2 miles is the play here. The Europeans routinely compete at this race distance thus giving them an edge over domestic runners.
Classic (25 editions)
The four editions held at Santa Anita have been won by two locally-based winners and two European invaders. Stick with that formula.
You now have the foundation to attack the challenging 14 races that await you on November 6th and 7th. Do your homework and study hard. And remember, history repeats itself on Breeders’ Cup day.


THE REST OF THE STORY AT:
http://www.horseplayerinteractive.co...ed.aspx#story2

ENJOY AND GET READY, AND YES WE WILL HAVE A E-PONIES PICK-6 POOL FOR THE BREEDERS CUP, DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

[brooklyn108]

Pro Ride is a nice way of saying the horses are running on old retread tires The horses have what amounts to sand thrown into their eyes, and it completely blinds them. On regular dirt, they may get clumps of dirt thrown at them, but it is much easier to knock off clumps then it is gritty sand. Pro Ride is a laugh. They say it is easier on the horses feet, alas it is tougher on their running style and their eyes. However, the show must go on.

[Nijinsky]

Over the years, I have developed a different type of angle when it comes to weighing-up the chances of BC hopefuls.

It involves monitoring closely the action that is taking place in Europe on the BC races. The legal bookmakers in the UK, and Ireland, take significant wagers on these races, and not all of the money originates over there.

U.S. horses have been the subject of sizeable gambles in the past, and the information sources have been attracted to betting on fixed-odds, before the mutuel windows ever open at the U.S. tracks.

The benefit of this angle for me in 'capping the BC races is not only can I see the live horses being well-bet, it also identifies horses not taking action. This is a great way of pinpointing likely underlays on raceday. Curlin, and Well Armed, were prime examples of this last year. Both horses were available at much higher odds than the mutuel pools offered at Santa Anita.
They were very relevant red flags.

From Nov 1st onwards, I will post my thoughts here on what is happening in the betting markets over there.
I have found it to be a very useful tool in the past.

Here is a sample of my ramblings from last year:

http://www.trackwinners.com/showthread.php?t=11529

http://www.trackwinners.com/showthread.php?t=11536

Good luck!

[canleakid]

THANKS FOR THE INFO.

[DukeSnider]

I may be wrong but ,I think you will not see any really good East Coast horses out there for the Poly. Rachael will not be there. It wa a Big mistake making the breeders cup on a Poly track 2 yrs in a row. They are trying to push the Poly track because of the Animal rights groups.
I bet the European horses have a great year.80% of the Horses that win on dirt , don't run good on Poly. And 95% of the horses the win on Poly can't handle the dirt.
There has never been a Poly hore win the Derby and I don't think any have won a triple crown race.
I will bet the Breeders Cup races on grass and will be watching the European horses at the distence races on the Poly. If I see one of them I think has a good shot at winning I will bet them ,other wise I will stay away from the race.

[canleakid]

THANKS DUKE,
GUYS LETS KEEP THIS THREAD ALIVE WITH YOUR THOUGHTS!!!!!!

[zendenten]

Canleakid---Good Post---Mazur's angles and insight are time-honored good. I loved using his data in some very fruitful
seasons betting Lone Star Park-when that
track was 2 and 3 years old. If the past
mimics the past this November at Santa Anita...it could be a very nice pay day for a cagey handicapper that is paying attention and making the right adjustments to his or her battle plans.
I will be one those generals. Thanks for the Pre-Cup Davinci Code. If I can exorcise the demons in Pro-Ride just once
and slap some winners out of them...Please Please Please let it be Breeder's Cup Day. Mazur Rocks. Good Post Texas Capper. Thanks.
Peace Out
zendenten

[canleakid]

THANKS, AND HOPE I DON'T MISREMEBER TO "THINK REAL HARD" ON CUP DAY.

[canleakid]

Here is the post I send out to the old gang

"Ok here we go, Breeders Cup time , hope all of the "old gang" comes back, I plan on having two levels of partners:
level 1: $25.00 for silent* partners
level 2: $100.00, from this group we will pick a few to put the ticket together.
our main goal is the p-6, any money left over will go for the late p-4 (which has a guaranteed pool) if nyhaze is not around, I will be the bank, I will take paypal and snail mail, now with paypal it takes 3 to 5 days for the money to get from my paypal acct. to my bank acct. so time will be tight and ofcourse with snail mail it takes time to get here and the check to clear the bank. So I will need ALL the money by November 2th. If there are special needs and I know ya, I trust ya LOL. So far charlied has paid!!! and is in !!! hope to see all of you plus some new names. Now for the good stuff every $25.00 will get you 1 share of our winnings. Any ?????? pm me. Marty aka Canleakid

*silent partners means just that

[canleakid]

Now we all know this is pool is open to all and there some that will not join us and thats ok, but if you are a serious team player please join us, in the words of that old great guy "if you ain't going to help us, don't hurt us"
Members in so far:
gelded
alphonse
tomg
plixie
charlied (paid)
joemc44
eddy1