Keeneland Opening Day races 1-4-5-6-7-8-910
1Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Great Crusade: He has a slew of excuses why he isn't winning and while he may run well if incident free, I feel it's doubtful he'll be of much influence in this race.
2, Normandruth: First time starter adds Lasix but bows for a low percentage barn. He's training decently but the bias could be his biggest foe in this one.
3, Malcom's Delite: Desormeaux handles this first time starter who has been training well leading up to this race. He had a sharp work from the gate last Saturday and could surprise by making a finishing in the money effort.
4, Nacho Corona: Raced well on the lead in his races at Presque Isle. He shortens up today and if Keenland's bias if present could have him backing up to others in mid stretch. He'd need to be much the best to win.
5, Soda Jerk: He's getting stronger and a rated ride from LeParoux can get him in contention late. He's earned the strongest speed figures of these and should be a major player with a heady ride.
6, East To West: Moves up to face tougher and will need to be well handled. Borel may take him back off the lead which is where he may race better from at this track. If he doesn't get it going he will fall short with his bid to get the win.
7, King Express: He didn't get the best trip in his last and finished well off the leaders. He'll need to show a little more before I can endorse him.
8, Trooper D: Earned a good speed figure in his debut running on grass. He made a middle move but it left him drained for the stretch run. Castellano should ride better then Canchamo and I believe he should vie for the superfecta at least.
9, The Big Finisher: He's working out well but will probably not be the big finisher today.
10, Moon Town: Off the four month layoff and didn't show much in his first race. Unless we see him improve big time he's only a superfecta runner.
11, Pagosa Peak: Track a fast pace in his first and couldn't sustain his run but defeated foe to earn a decisive second place finish. Court will probably need to keep him off the pace a bit to give him a chance to win.
12, Axton Park: I'd be more then a little surprised to see him move forward and challenge for the win. However his workouts have improved and he is spotted in a suspect field. Stranger things can happen.
$2.00 win bets 5-6
$1.00 exacta wheel 5-6-11 / 4-5-6-11 cost 9.00
.10 cent superfecta: 5-6-11 / 4-5-6-11 / 3-4-5-6-11 / 2-3-4-5-6-8-10-11 cost $13.50
4Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Woodford Girl: She could come off the layoff fresh and ready to run. Most of this field doesn't seem as strong as she can be. She is fast enough to be a threat to hit the board but could easily be out finished by others.
2, Grassy Nellie: She has the speed figures to out run these but ma have to be forwardly placed to use her late speed to run past tired runners. She is probably over matched and will need her best to win.
3, Kapanga: She has the speed to win but could be dependant on early pace from others to use her late speed. She hasn't raced in three months and this barn doesn't do well bringing runners back off layoff. But her talent could over come the layoff. With Gomez in the irons her chances to win are a little higher.
4, Suz Slew: She needs to find more speed if she wants to compete with these. This class level should be too tough for her and I can only try to use her in the superfecta because of the addition of Maragh
5, Striking Dancer: She may have set a pace faster then she could handle in her last and tired in mid stretch. Albarado can not afford to make that kind of pace mistake like that in this one. She will probably be on the lead and I don't think she can hold off rivals making a late charge at her.
6, Ms. Margaret: She's faced tougher but her lone turf race was forgettable. She shouldn't have much impact on this field.
7, Forest Trail: She can't make the lead if she wants to win. In most of her races she was in the mix unless she got into traffic troubles. She doesn't have consistent enough speed to run past these to use her to win. If Castellano can keep her off the pace and running relaxed she should figure in the gimmicks.
8, Carryin The Dream: The runners she faces here are not the runners she faced in Ohio and Indiana. She should struggle to run with these and hit the board.
9, Yielding Gold: She makes the move to turf and will need to improve to run with these to go this distance. This class level should prove too tough for her.
10, Maybe Baby: She's too slow to run with these and factor for minor rewards. Her speed figures are too low for me to endorse her in anyway.
11, Tight Precision: Comes off the layoff of nearly a year and although I believe turf runners normally recover from lengthy layoffs faster then non turf runners. She has the back class and her speed figures are much better then these. . I believe she'll either win or spit the bit and finish well off the leaders.
12, A Wee Gift: Returns to the turf after three month away where she finished a clear fourth. She needs most of these to give way to have hopes for a superfecta run. I like her late pace and thinks if she catches a few breaks can vie for that superfecta spot.
$2.00 win bets 5-7-11
$1.00 exacta box 3-5-7-11 cost $12.00
.50 cent trifecta wheel 5-7-11/ 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7 cost $8.50
.10 cent superfecta wheel 5-7-11/ 3-5-7 / 1-3-5-7 / 1-3-4-5-7-11-12 cost $6.80
$1.00 daily double wheel 5-7-11 / 5-7
$1.00 pick three wheel 5-11 / 5-7 / 8-12 cost $8.00
5Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Call Shot: Extends an extra furlong in his second off the layoff. A sharp work out at Keeneland may indicate he likes the synthetic surface and could run well over it. Albarado will need to keep him close but reserved to allow him to hit the board. 2 Sheriff Berti: Won despite the not so good and slow trip in his last at Turfway Park. Broke his maiden versus cheaper claimers and now makes the jump to allowance level racing. He started to tire going 5½ so now with 1½ more to go could falter badly enough to miss the board.
3, Westrock Gold: He's faced tougher but will need to show more. His workouts do not entice me to use him versus these and I believe I can exclude him from the wagers.
4, Moon Nistle: Returns to an synthetic surface where he run one of his better races. he didn't fare well versus winners at the $75K level at Saratoga on a less then ideal track. He shouldn't be a threat to win but could be a superfecta runner on the poly-track.
5, Pegasus Prancer: He had to fight hard to earn the win in his last versus cheaper at Arlington Park. His work outs at Keeneland seem a bit better and if they are, he could be a major player. He may be a step slower then it takes to win but if Bridgmohan can rate him and hopefully others will come back to him and let him loom for the win.
6, Liston: He and his connections were savagely slapped back to reality in the G-1 Hopeful. He should be at a level he fits better in. He's shown speed before but speed alone may not win this race for him. The Storm Cat genes may allow him to run all day and I like Maragh in the irons. This could allow him to finish in the gimmicks.
7, Gun Rock: In his last he pressed the pace and got past his foes to win at this distance. Gomez could have a lot of horse under him but will need to ride smartly. This even paced runner will have to find a little more as they enter mid stretch. A sharp ride offers him a chance to win.
8, Harken Up: Switches from turf to an all weather surface. In his last he suffered a troubled start and over came all that to win. Son of Empire Maker may need to get lucky today.
9, Honor In Peace: Wesley Ward runner may not get the support he'd normally would. in his 5th start. He returns to the Ward barn and may not have had enough time with him to iron out any problems he may have picked up in England. I can only use him in the superfecta and maybe the trifecta.
$2.00 win bet 5-7
$1.00 exacta box 5-6-7 cost $6.00
.50 trifecta wheel 5-7 / 5-6-7 / 1-5-6-7 cost $8.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 5-7 / 5-6-7 / 1-5-6-7 / 1-2-4-5-6-7-9 cost $4.80
$1.00 daily double wheel 5-7 / 8-12
$1.00 pick three wheel 5-7 / 8-12 / 3 cost $4.00
$1.00 pick six wheel 5-7 / 12 / 3 / 4-7 / 3 / 5-6 cost $8.00
6Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Golden Birdie: She's probably getting some class relief but the distance could be her biggest obstacle. She will need to show more.
2, Social Page: She debuts with a dose of Lasix and she isn't burning up the track in the morning. Nicely bred filly will need to out perform her work outs and I don't think she will.
3, Cautionary Tale: She should be a little tighter in her second career race. She comes from a barn that does well with its first time starters and while I don't think she wins, can figure in the exotics.
4, Ditch The Act: Moves up into tougher and ran poorly in her first try. I will say with some reservations she appeared to have woke up late. That may be a sign she understood what she was supposed to do and maybe if cost can be kept low I'll use her in the superfecta.
5, Sinful State: She just sort of ran along in her last on the poly-track at Turfway Park. One good thing is she's only been on this type of surface and should feel at home at Keeneland. She should be a little better and if held off the lead may be able to run for the trifecta.
6, Absinthe Minded: First time starter has some decent training session leading up to her debut and could run well. The Lukas barn is still struggling this year and this may swing bettors to other runners. She may be worth using in the superfecta/trifecta.
7, Thundering Heat: She should be over matched unless she bled that badly in her last. She's working out well on the poly-track but I won't be swayed by that last razor sharp work out. She will have to beat me.
8, Beautiful Song: She comes off the turf where she was running well and owns some decent work out times here at Keeneland. She could catch a break is Castellano can rate her off the pace and let her use her late speed to run past tiring runners. A smart ride gives her a big chance.
9, Favoriteauntchris: She should be in against too tough to win and I'd be surprised to see her near the leaders at the end of the race.
10, It'smyburtday: Unless she pulls a miracle from somewhere she shouldn't be a threat to these.
11, Fugitive Angel: She was running in last place then to and insult to injury bolted at the ¼ pole. She should be well behaved today and should run much better with the addition of blinkers. If the blinkers improve her concentration I believe she can finish at least in the superfecta.
12, Orchestrator: Took the lead and almost held sway in her last at Saratoga. She shortens up today and with a rated ride could go gate to wire. This field is rather weak and Albarado only needs to ride smartly to win.
$2.00 exacta wheel 8-12
$1.00 exacta wheel 8-12 / 3-8-12 cost $4.00
$5.00 exacta box 8-12 cost $10.00
.50 cent trifecta wheel 8-12 / 3-8-12 / 3-5-6-8-12 cost $6.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 8-12 / 3-8-12 / 3-5-6-8-12 / 3-4-5-6-8-11-12 cost $4.80
$1.00 daily double wheel 8-12 / 3
$1.00 pick three wheel 8-12 / 3 / 4-7 cost $4.00
7Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Kanadatsi: Cuts back from her last where she raced well until the last furlong. She gets an inexperienced rider as well as a hike in class. She may have trouble keeping pace with these.
2, Tweeter: She’s had excuses in her last three races and until she starts to turn things around would be hard to endorse. Granted she’s been in against tougher and if she feels like running could figure in the superfecta.
3, Film Charm: Her first time running over a synthetic surface. She shows good speed and in her third off the layoff could take a stalking trip to get by leaders in time to notch a victory.
4, Island Lioness: She should have trouble running with these in her present form. She will have to spoil my day.
5, Alice’s Smart: She hasn’t raced in half a year and was racing poorly before the layoff. She cuts back to an easier distance but may be short coming off the layoff.
6, Election Day: She’s in a little tougher then she should be able to handle but if others start to back up to her she could find herself suddenly a superfecta contender.
7, Distorted Love: Eased in her last and if she comes back unaffected can be a major player. Shipped in to Kentucky and started to run well then on to New York State where things went awry. Now back in Kentucky and training well. It’s a hunch play but I’ll use her on top.
8, Quite The Lady: She’s been off over a year and Pletcher has had more then enough time to get her fully prepared to return to racing. She’s training decently at Delaware Park and has not missed the board in three attempts on this type of surface. I’d love to see her in the paddock before deciding to use her or not.
9, Sweetest Song: She ran well in her first race off the year long layoff. It appears she didn’t do much to win. She looks like she just out finished tired rivals. It’s tough to see her doing that well this time.
10, Silver Time: It seems she never got a good hold on the Delaware Park surface and I wonder how my Delaware Shipper angles works out on poly-track surfaces. Her previous two attempts on this surface saw her running well. She could rebound in form to vie for lower gimmick spots.
11, Diamond Song: She should be able to handle this level of competition well enough to vie for the gimmicks. A win is tough but she’ll need to be rated to last for minor rewards.
12, Raposa: She may have some trouble out running allowance level fillies and mares for the win. Her speed figures aren’t that bad and with her best she has more then an adequate chance to figure in the trifecta.
$2.00 WPS 3
$1.00 exacta key 3 / 7-8 cost $2.00
$1.00 exacta box 3-7-8 cost $6.00
.50 cent trifecta wheel 3 / 7-8 / 7-8-10-11-12 cost $4.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 3-7-8 / 3-7-8 / 3-7-8-10-11-12 / 2-3-6-7-8-10-11-12 cost $12.00
$1.00 daily double wheel 3 / 4-7
$1.00 pick three wheel 3 / 4-7 / 2-3-4 cost $6.00
.50 cent pick four wheel 3-7-8 / 4-7 / 3 / 5-6 cost $6.00
8Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Greeley’s Conquest: Ships in and his form should be good enough to run well here. Has never run over the poly-track but if he grabs hold to it should be tough.
2, Silver Edition: Any pace that’s faster then average should see him finish well off the leaders. Both his efforts on poly-track have been at Keeneland and he was no threat. He shortens up but it shouldn’t help.
3, EZ Dreamer: Won his last at Zia Park and he shows good speed. He’s in against tougher and will need to bring his best to hit the board.
4, Capt. Candyman Can: Veteran of graded stakes races should make a good run to close on leaders. He should get some early pace to run after and if he brings his best on the poly-track he should be the one to beat.
5, Hamazing Destiny: If he tries to go with early leaders should start to back up to others. He’ll need his best to figure in the superfecta.
6, Past The Point: Has the speed and with the return to a poly-track surface could run well enough to earn a won. He worked out well on the poly-track and his running style fits the bias that’s prominent here. Good handling should have him among leaders.
7, Fatal Bullet: He doesn’t handle conventional dirt well but this sprint and synthetic track specialist will go to the lead and try to hold off rivals at this short distance. He’s nothing but speed and if he beats the bias, he cand beat these.
8, My Pal Charlie: He adds blinkers and shortens up. He will need to bring his best to win and that could still be not enough. He’s faced nothing but graded stakes runners in his last 10 races so this level shouldn’t be a hardship for him. Only his lack of blazing speed should stop him from winning if he doesn’t catch some pace relief.
9, Formidable: He has some speed and could ensure a honest pace for others. It will be his first time in a poly track surface and I’m not sure how he will run on it. If Landeros handles him well he can be a trifecta runner.
10, Sing Baby Sing: He’s only raced once this year and almost beat a short field of seven in a pretty decent time off the ten month layoff. He’s raced and won at Keeneland before so he’s no stranger to this surface. His form could be sharp enough to upset this field. I think he should be used here in some capacity.
$2.00 win bet 4-7
$1.00 exacta wheel 4-7 / 4-7-8-10 cost $6.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 4-7 / 4-7-8-10 / 1-4-6-7-8-10 / 1-4-6-7-8-9-10 cost $12.80
$1.00 daily double wheel 4-7 / 2-3-4
$1.00 pick three wheel 4-7 / 3-4 / 5-6 cost $8.00
9Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Blackwell: She may need to improve a great deal to be remotely considered in this group at this level
2, Tidal Pool: Stretches out and will need to be handled with care on this surface and distance. A clean start helps and if she goes to the lead will be challenged with every step. If she can repel this pressure and the possible bias she could out finish foes.
3, She Be Wild: This two year old filly has won at this distance on a surface similar to this. Her running style seems suited for this track. Gomez takes the reins for the first time and should have a handful of horse under him. If she runs without mishap should win this race.
4, Beautician: Tracked pace setters at Saratoga but couldn’t make the move to get by. She adds an additional furlong today and may need leaders to come back to her. She could end up chasing winner to the wire.
5, Negligee: She was racing on the faster poly track surface at Woodbine and may not be able to bring those efforts to Kentucky. Grade stakes runners can make her work harder then she would like. I think with her very best she makes a superfecta and maybe a trifecta finish possible
6, Screen Legend: Trailed just off 3, She Be Wild in their last at Arlington but couldn’t produce any late run. She couldn’t handle that pace and she may have trouble running with these if she doesn’t get better fast.
7, Zilva: She shortens up after a strong run at a mile and a eighth in her last at Saratoga. She probably will run faster on the synthetic surface but may still lag behind the better runners in deep stretch. She can figure but needs a strong effort.
8, Decelerator: Her declining speed figures before the break are not a good sign. She has the breeding for speed but it hasn’t quite been there. Right now I don’t feel good using her and if she beats me I won’t feel bad.
9, Amen Hallelujah: Stalked an easy pace and Castanon waited until about the ¼ pole then had her move suddenly past the field. She won that one easily and if she's any better in her third off the layoff could run into the gimmicks but she may not be quite ready to go this distance yet. I think I can only use her in the superfecta.
10, Kid Kate: She's moving up in class but her speed figures dropped slightly. She didn't get the best trip in her last but this daughter of Lemon Drop Kid has the potential to run big but must prove she can handle the all weather surface. She can run into the trifecta with her best.
11. Quick Breeze: She should be in a class that's too tough for her and although she won her last at Arlington. She came from well off the pace to win and the bias at this track fits her running style. If she improves she could be a superfecta runner at best but that's a long shot.
12, Sassy Image: She put up a forgettable effort in her last. She will need to rebound to have a chance to finish in the money. Her middle move must be timed better and it could see her get involved in the gimmicks. She may be worth another shot using in the gimmicks.
$2.00 WPS 3
$1.00 exacta key 3 / 2-4
$1.00 exacta box 2-3-4 cost $6.00
.50 cent trifecta wheel 2-3-4 / 2-3-4 / 2-3-4-10-12 cost $6.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 2-3-4 / 2-3-4 / 2-3-4-10-12 / 2-3-4-5-7-9-10-12 cost $6.00
$1.00 daily double wheel 2-3-4 / 5-6
10Keeneland Friday, October 9, 2009
1, Kiss Mine: Just shows average speed but that could see her running close to early leaders and if Farina can have her placed well with out going too fast can have her in contention late.
2, Yolo: This level and surface should see her have a tough time keeping pace with the stronger runners in this field.
3, Miss Triss: Moves out of the claiming ranks and will need to step up her game to have a chance to factor versus allowance runners. She surprisingly ran slower on the faster Gulfstream turf course but ran well in Illinois on grass. She could make a superfecta bid with her best.
4, True Birkin: She just never seems to do enough to get her head in front to win. She will need to get lucky to notch a victory in this one.
5, Banker's Choice: She could be well rested off the three month layoff but coming from as far off the pace as she probably will may see her run into traffic if Borel isn't careful. She must be considered against these.
6, Redreamit: Her speed figures aren't has high as others but she runs faster then they do. Those times came on what can be called faster turf courses. Her race is in Albarado's hands A sharp rated trip can have her in position to get past these in deep stretch.
7, Super Poni: She gets a class drop but but her form has seemed to drop off. I think I can drop her last two races and believe the return to turf can see her move forward. She may have had a chance to factor in the bottom of the gimmicks at a big price with a better jockey.
8, Alley Theater: Since breaking her maiden off the layoff she seems to have turned it on. Comes back to Kentucky where she earned both of her turf win. She could have some trouble winning today but should figure in the gimmicks.
9, Lauren's Heather: Ships in from River Downs and while she was too tough for rivals there should end up an also ran if she doesnt get very lucky. She may have an outside superfecta shot.
10, Wallon: Her current form doesnt offer her much hope. She loses the blinkers and if she races relaxed she may move forward but shouldnt be a threat to these.
11, Project Rose: She's working out nicely but from post position 11 will need to be ridden smartly She lacks the lae speed to run these down but could be positioned late to pass tired runners as they fade to a crawl others.
12, She's Due:
$2.00 win bets 5-6
$1.00 exacta box1-5-6-8 cost $12.00
$1.00 exacta wheel 5-6 / 1-5-6-8 cost $6.00
.50 cent trifecta wheel 5-6 / 1-5-6 / 1-4-5-6-8 cost $6.00
.10 cent superfecta wheel 5-6 / 1-5-6-8/ 1-4-5-6-7-8-9-11 cost $12.00
Stoney Lad A best horse I ever owned. R.I.P. Big Horse
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