What are the strengths of computerized handicapping?

Does computer handicapping have any limitations?

How do I use this analysis?

Learn about the owner/handicapper.

• The computer program (written by me) uses actual data from past performances.

• The computer use Visual Basic to analyze the information and generate 16 raw scores in several categories.

• For each race, I set biases based on the class and distance of the race.

• The computer program combines the raw scores and weights them based on my bias selections.

• The results are presented to me in table format. Each horse will have a combined score in each of six categories: Speed, Class, Form, Last 45 days, Connections, and Line. See an example of the output.

• The last three columns are just provided for handicapping assistance they are not actually calculated by the computer program. They are:
      Jock - indicates a jockey change
      Equ - indicates an equipment change
      Lbs - weight difference from last race to current race

• Quantitative - When you handicap using just your head, how do you know you are comparing all horses on an even playing field. How do you compare a second place finish in a claiming race at Pimlico to an fourth place finish in allowance company at Churchill? A computer can compare them quantitatively.

• Thorough - My program examines far more information from past performances than you or I could do in the same amount of time. I found that the strength of the computer analysis is that it can examine things that I often neglected to consider.

• Speed - I can process an entire day of racing in about thirty minutes. In a short time, my computer program boils down the field to a handful of contenders.

• Ranks competitively - The program will consider each horse against the company in the race. Every horse is evaluated not against a standard, but against the other horses in the race. If a given horse has the only speed in the race, for example, his speed score will be proportionally quite large. The same for other factors as well.

• Unbiased - The computer doesn't have hunches or superstitions, and it doesn't keep track of horses that "owe it money." It simply compares all horses fairly and evenly and makes an assessment based on all of the available information. You can add the vital elements of intuition on your own, if you choose.

• Results - Keep track of my results, you'll see.

• A computer cannot evaluate pace like a human being can. It often takes some intuition to see that a horse would be a strong choice if he is unopposed on the lead, but a weak choice if he has to fight for the lead throughout. Seeing how a race sets up for the stretch run is a challenge for a computer.

• A computer cannot evaluate first time starters. Neither can you for the most part, but at least you can watch the tote board. My program uses connections heavily in these situations and does pretty well.

• My analysis cannot take into consideration the track conditions at the time of the race, I run the analysis the night before.

• My computer program cannot read a trouble line in the racing form. If a horse has an excuse for faltering in a race (traffic, troubled trip, etc) my computer program will not be able to evaluate that. But a human being can "throw out that race" if he or she thinks it was not a fair race for the horse.

• Look for value. If my program chooses a horse to finish in the top three spots that the morning line and the tote board seem to have ignored, give him a close look. He must have something going for him for my computer program to pick it up.

• Use the individual numbers for speed and class. If a horse is a clear sole owner of a big speed score, and the race is 5.5 furlongs, he deserves consideration. For longer races, speed is not as important as class. If a horse leads both categories, he deserves some serious consideration. For maiden races with some first time starters, look hard at the connections.

• Sometimes you may see my top pick lead in total score by a large margin. However, the scores depend on the raw scores the horses get in each of the categories and also depend on the number of horses in the race. Races with fewer horse will have much higher scores. Imagine each score category as a pie. The fewer the horses, the more pie each horse will get. So the margins between the top contenders will be much larger with smaller fields. Keep that in mind when evaluating large fields, a margin of only twenty points may be as significant as 50 or 60 points in smaller fields. Look at the margins by percent.

• Keep an eye out for the longest odds horse in my top four. I have observed an usually high number of these guys showing up in the winner's circle. And they pay well. Can't figure it out, but its true.

• As with any form of gambling on future events - past performance is not a guarantee of future sustained performance. Gambling is a risk. And it is a risk that you take on for yourself. Nothing in these free sheets is intended to represent a prediction of the future, it is simply an analysis of past performances. Gamble responsibly and do not wager at all if you cannot afford to lose!