Welcome to the eighth edition of the Kentucky Derby Feature from e-ponies.com!

Notes and disclaimers:

1. Please check the private forum frequently for commentary and updates.
2. Please check the horse numbers carefully.  Use the program if you have one!
3. In the event of a scratch, simply promote my next highest horse in overall ranking into the spot left open by the scratched horse. 
4. By request - In order to introduce more value, I have added my Dad’s Value Plays to each race.
5. I have also added bullet points for each horse in every race, so you can at least see my thoughts on each horse. The analysis was not limited to this one line, but it is meant as a brief synopsis.
6. I will be playing pick threes and trifectas all day long. I will play them as I have listed them here. However, all of these wagers are given as suggestions only. They have no guarantee of return. Wager sensibly if you wager at all. Good luck!!

May 4^th

Tenth Race - 1 1/8 Mile (Dirt) Kentucky Oaks ($500000) 3UPyo Fil

Pace analysis: Dreaming of Anna looks to be the speed of the race, based on her large point margin on speed, and observation in form. She appears to be a bit out of form lately, coming in a beaten favorite in her last two. However, she should still be winging it early and the predicted wet track should work to her advantage. Mistical Plan probably does not have the class to go all the way, but is another who will definitely dictate a strong pace. These two, along with a Tough Tiz’s Sis should make up the early pace. The pace should be strong, but not strong enough to leave behind the favorite, Rags To Riches, who has the class to stay close. If you are looking for a weakness in the favorite, she has never had to close over a wet track and it may be something she does not like to do.

Bullet points:

• Dawn After Dawn- decent effort in the Ashland. Lacks class.
• Cash Included – Has run behind several of these before. No strong reason to expect a reversal today
• High Heels – Some off track experience. Closes well. Improving horse.
• Octave – In her losses against these, was catching them at the wire. Extra distance today. Appears to like Churchill.
• Cotton Blossom – Always around the money. Little bit cheaper than some of these.
• Grace Happens – Cheap and slow. Doesn’t really belong here.
• Dreaming of Anna – BC Juvenile Fillies winner over this track. Will have company on the lead. Might slip away over a wet surface.
• Swift Temper – Has been beaten badly by many of these.
• Tough Tiz’s Sis – Likes to stalk, may be forwardly placed today. Little cheap.
• Autobahn Girl – One of just a couple that has raced well over an off track. Did so over this Churchill surface. Dangerous at 15:1
• Rags to Riches – Logical favorite. Running extremely well lately. Off track experience a question.
• Sealy Hill – Tough but cheap.
• Mistical Plan – Likely part of early pace. Likely pace casualty (fade).
• High Again – No reason she couldn’t, but would take a big effort.

Race Analysis: The favorite will be very tough to catch, but she is lightly raced and this is the biggest, toughest field she has ever faced. And she has no wins over a wet track. Makes sense to try and beat her. Of the early pace horses, Dreaming of Anna is much the best and may get daylight on the rest of the lead pack. Will be tough to catch if the track is wet. Autobahn Girl is a very live long shot and will probably be overlooked in the wagering. Octave should bounce back from a rough trip last time out.

Win: Dreaming of Anna

Exacta: Box 7,10,11

Trifecta: Box 4,7,10,11

Pick Three: Use 4,7,11

Oaks Daily Double: 4,7,10,11 with 2,7,14,16

Dad’s Value Play: Tough Tiz’s Sis

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Autobahn Girl

May 5th

Fifth Race - 7.0F (Dirt) CD-G2 Churchill Downs S ($250000) 4UPyo

Pace Analysis: expect a very healthy pace, set by Saint Anndan primarily, but there are several in here who will vie for the early lead. Wanderin Boy has shown lots of early speed in the past but for longer distances. He will likely start a step slower than the front runners out of the gate. Wanderin Boy may, in fact, be shortening up because he has not shown enough heart to go the longer distances he used to. Junior College gets a decent speed score from my computer but that has been against cheaper horses. He will have trouble keeping up today. The pace should be quick but none of the deep closers in the field have enough class to make ground on the front runners except Ah Day. Stalkers, like the favorite, should get their shot.

Bullet points:

• Half Ours – Deserving favorite. Will be close early on. Good distance for him.
• Wanderin Boy – class of the race, but at longer distances. Class is a little bit old. Not in best form now
• Will He Shine – Cheaper than these. Long layoff.
• Ah Day – Cannot be dismissed. Always runs his race. Nice package of speed, class, form
• Cougar Cat – Outclassed
• Istan – On his best game right now. Back to back big Beyers
• Saint Anddan – Quickest out of the gate but not likely to hold.
• Moon Halo – Outclassed
• Junior College – Outclassed

Race Analysis: Wandering Boy will not be able to get up in time, but could be a part of the exotics. Half Ours is a logical choice but will be bet down pretty well since the field is not all that strong. I’m not suggesting dismissing the favorite, but at the odds he will likely be sent off, he is worth trying to beat. Ah Day is a nice combination of class, and has some closing kick that could come in handy today. He should be able to get up for the win. Will likely go off at value odds.

Win: Ah Day

Exacta: Box 1,2,4,7

Trifecta: Wheel 1,4 with 1,2,4,6,7 with 1,2,4,6,7

Pick Three: Use 1,4,7

Daily Double: 4 with ALL

Dad’s Value Play: Saint Anddan

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Saint Anddan

Sixth Race - 1.0 Mile (Turf) Churchill Distaff Turf Mile G3 ($150000) 3UPyo

Pace Analysis: What are they going to do about Quite A Bride? There is no one to even keep her honest in the early going. She can have it all her own way for the first half, and she is going shorter than her usual distance. Yet she is fourth choice on the morning line. My computer gives her a big speed advantage and I completely agree. If the turf is soft, it helps her even more. A couple in here like to come from waaaaay back, including the favorite, Price Tag and the third choice Magnificent Song. Both have come from as far back as 12^th to win. Take the Ribbon will stalk. Lady of Venice will be more forwardly placed than she usually sits. Expect a strung out field even though the field is small. Pace up front should be quick as Quite A Bride is likely aware her only chance is to wire it. If she stays close to the favorite going to the turn, she will be caught. She is going to have to gun it and go.

Bullet points:

· Lady of Venice – very nice mid-pack closing style. Might keep her close enough to catch the speed. Used to going further. Will have to hustle up.

· Rich Fantasy – The only knock is her class. Has not run with the likes of these before

· Culpeper Moon – Too slow, too cheap. Doesn’t belong

· Price Tag – Hot as a pistol since shipping over. Will want to hang out in the back. But the field is small enough that she should cover.

· Quite A Bride – rule #1, always bet sole speed. This is as sole as it ever gets

· Magnificent Song – Very good horse, but another deep closer. Off since October but has won off a layoff before.

· Take the Ribbon – Looks outclassed. Would be a big step up.

Race analysis: Looking at Price Tag, you can see why she is the favorite here. Was bet down to be the favorite in both US starts, and held form beautifully. Both going this distance. She will get up for a piece and she will be running hard late. However, Quite A Bride will be left alone on the front end, and her speed margin appears to be pretty significant. With the forecast calling for rain, the course will likely be soft, giving her further advantage. I expect her odds to drift north of 4:1, making her the best value proposition in the field.

Win: Quite A Bride

Exacta: Box 4,5,6

Trifecta: Box 4,5,6

Pick Three: Use 4,5

Daily Double: 5 with ALL

Dad’s Value Play: Take the Ribbon

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Rich Fantasy

Seventh Race - 7.5F (Dirt) La Troienne Stk Mile G3 ($150000) 3yo

Pace analysis: Preponderance of stalking speed in this one. Only one true front runner, Appealing Zophie, and no deep closers. The likely trailers early on will be Mostbeautifulstorm and Suaveness, but I would not consider either one a consistent closing type. The pace out front will be set by Appealing Zophie. She is capable of setting very aggressive fractions, and with the race shorter today than she is used to, she can be sent even harder. Total should be right there with Zophie and then the rest of the pack will be fairly tight.

Bullet points:

• Upcoming Story – Just a maiden win on the card. Lots of excuses in first effort. Still looks unlikely on paper.
• Pro Pink – Easy to see why she is 30-1. Not much to like
• Silverinyourpocket – Seemed to like racing maidens better. No luck with winners.
• Mostbeautifulstorm – Took her four tries to break maiden. Drops to ALW for win last time out. Not a good sign.
• Appealing Zophie – Disappointment last time out is a huge red flag, but she is so much the best it is hard to bet around her.
• Times’ Mistress – Outclassed by the favorite but not many others. Could get it done..
• Total – If you can find a reason to throw out her last one, probably one you like. Many in here are shaking off a dull effort. Could hit the board.
• Tensas Yucatan – Bats for the cycle - cheap, slow and inconsistent.
• Looky Yonder – Not ready for graded win
• Tessa Blue – Does not appear ready for graded win. Huge leap up.
• Suaveness – has closed against quality horses before. Sluggish speed figs. Only horse in the field on a positive trend.

Race analysis: If it were not for Appealing Zophie’s terrible effort in the FG Oaks, she would be even money on the morning line. When she is on her game, she is way better than these. Her front running style fits well with the shorter distance. Her biggest concern should be horses at long odds impacting the pace and then flaming out. Could drag Appealing Zophie down too. She is sole speed and as such is very dangerous, especially if the weather forecast holds and the track is wet.

If Appealing Zophie is on her game, it won’t matter if she has company or not. The rest of these have some serious dings against them. The ones with the least are Total and Time’s Mistress. Suaveness is a good bit cheaper than most of these but is one of the very few that appears to be on a positive trend, albeit against weaker horses.

Win: Appealing Zophie

Exacta: Wheel 5 with 1,3,6,7,11

Trifecta: Key 5 with 1,3,6,7,11

Pick Three: Use 5,7

Daily Double: 5 with ALL

Dad’s Value Play: Tessa Blue

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Suaveness

Eighth Race - 7F (Dirt) Humana Distaff Mile G1 ($300000) FM 3UPyo

Pace analysis: For reasons I cannot explain (yet) my computer overlooked Bushfire in the speed category. Possibly due to her dismal Beyer figure last time out. But certainly when it comes to gate speed, she is one with the most. She should mix it up early with Maryfield and set good strong fractions. Bushfire is shortening up to try and get back into winning form, but she is going to have to hustle more than she is used to. Bushfire did not like the sloppy track at Gulfstream last year. Hysterical Lady is another who will keep Bushfire company in the early going. Shaggy Mane has some speed, but mostly cheap speed. She could hang around the pace early on. Bushfire used to be dangerous at this distance, even if pressured but is in bad form lately and if she repeats current form she will fade when pressured. Pussycat Doll is a classic example of tactical speed. She sits off the pace just enough to keep them in site and then hits the gas on the turn. She likes the 7 furlong distance and should have no excuses today.

Bullet points:

• Pussycat Doll – Just one race since winning her last Derby day, but got it done impressively against G1 company. Tuff tuff tuff.
• Shaggy Mane – Very cheap compared to most of these.
• Carriage Trail – Been running at great tracks, will try to close late
• Leah’s Secret – has had trouble stepping up to the big time in graded events
• Maryfield – Decent speed. Comes in off a very nice win.
• Morner – Too cheap. Too slow. Been beaten by almost everyone in the race
• Hysterical Lady – All west coast, all dry track experience. Tough to bank on.
• Wildcat Bettie – Running with some good horses, good tracks. Would be a big step up.
• Sweet Fervor – Back to back triple digit Beyer scores
• Bushfire – not the horse she used to be. Can’t see a return to form today. Wet track will help though.

Race analysis: Pussycat Doll is proven able off a layoff. Has some very nice bullet works and looks ready. Loves the distance and has run in the slop before. No reason to try and bet around her. Hope for 8:5 odds. Bushfire would have to really get a lot of help from the off track to pull it off and would need a strong return to form on top of that. Maryfield is a live long shot as she seems to be an improving horse, coming off a 104 Beyer score.

Win: Pussycat Doll

Exacta: Wheel 1 with 5,10

Trifecta: Key 1 with 3,4,5,9,10

Pick Three: Use 1 and 5

Daily Double: 1 with ALL

Daily Double: ALL with 9

Dad’s Value Play: Sweet Fervor

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Maryfield

Ninth Race - 9F (Turf) Woodford Reserve Turf Clsc G1 ($500000) 3UPyo

Pace Analysis: Shake the Bank will shorten up a bit, but will retain his speedy running style. He has had a lot of trouble keeping long leads in his last efforts, but the time off may have helped. I suspect Icy Atlantic, Defer and Go Between will hang out with him and make sure he does not get too far away. Better Talk Now will dawdle in the early going, as he always does, but will have to hurry since he has a lot less real estate to work with than usual. Better Talk Now has experienced over a soft course and has maintained his nice closing kick. Brilliant stalks well, as does Einstein. Both of these are capable of running near the lead if needed.

Bullet points:

• Brilliant – Loves Churchill. Hits the board a LOT
• Icy Atlantic – Does much better as a stalker than a lead runner. Off his best game lately but capable.
• Shake the Bank – Form says no way. Too far for him.
• Danzon – No proven class ability in US. Tough to bet over some of these
• Better Talk Now – Nine out of last ten races in triple digit speed scores. Will be gunning late.
• Einstein – Always runs his race. Good experience over soft turf.
• Sky Conqueror – Has not proven much south of the border
• Milk It Mick – All west coast, no off track experience. One graded win is becoming dated. Would be a big step up.
• Go Between – Well traveled, proven horse. Should be close throughout. Dangerous at 8:1
• Defer – Nice style but very cheap for this crowd.

Race Analysis: The safe bet is Better Talk Now, who also happens to be one of my favorite horses. I love his closing style. Radiates class. But he has been known to throw in a clunker every now and then. I believe he will handle the yielding surface better than most (if it is soft) and will likely win the race. But he will be bet down pretty well since none of the rest are real standouts. If you are looking for value, I suggest Go Between, who can also be a little unpredictable. But he comes in off a very soft tune-up at Tampa. Should be primed to give his best today. Icy Atlantic is always dangerous but does not appear to have handled the Churchill course well in his recent trips there. Brilliant’s style keeps him close throughout. Not likely classy enough to win, but could hold for a piece.

Win: Go Between

Exacta: Box 1,2,5,9

Trifecta: 5,9 with 1,2,5,9 with 1,2,5,9

Pick Three: Use 1,5,9

Daily Double: 5,9 with 2,7,14, 16

Dad’s Value Play: Go Between

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Brilliant

Tenth Race - 1 ¼ Mile (Dirt) 133^rd Kentucky Derby G1 ($2000000) 3yo

Pace analysis: The late addition of Sedgefield adds some heat to the pace. However, do not expect anything like the crazy pace from two years ago which set the race up for a big run from off the pace. This year’s Derby will be more reasonable. I do not believe the pace will be soft enough for anyone to perform a steal. There is enough early pace to form a front pack who will do their usual part in the Derby of tiring each other out. I expect the winner to come from further back than sixth position at the first call. Overall, this year’s Derby has more than the usual share of stalkers and closers.

There are no horses in the race that must lead all the way to win. But there are a few that definitely prefer to be in front by the first call. Here are your early pace horses: Cowtown Cat, Teuflesberg, Storm in May, Stormello, Liquidity and to a lesser degree Hard Spun and Sedgefield. This amount of speed, even without the one central burner figure, should be sufficient to juice up the pace. I expect a “typical” Derby pace scenario. Early speed will fade, setting the race up for a closer or stalker. This pace scenario is most favorable to the mid-pack closing types, less favorable for the close-up stalkers and the deep closing types. Least favored will be the early speed types.

Deep closers Dominican, Great Hunter and Circular Quay should have no excuses other than the usual traffic troubles that closers face (x 20).

Bullet points:

1. Sedgefield – No graded stakes wins. Runs near the pace. Highly improbable.
2. Curlin: Three lifetime starts sets off a lot of alarms for Derby entries. Simply has not proven himself yet. Many famous examples of lightly raced, undefeated horses vanishing in the Derby (Arazi, Indian Charlie, Showing Up). Although his margins of victory are solid, his times have not been as impressive. Calls into question how tough a competition he has faced. I will have some souvenir money on him just in case he turns out to be a freak, but I don’t expect him to hit the board. Awful post position draw.
3. Zanjero – No wins other than Maiden. Has given up the lead late twice.
4. Storm in May – Has given up the lead late twice against similar company. factors in the pace, but not in the exotics.
5. Imawildandcrazyguy – went off at 37:1 in the Florida Derby and ran sixth. There you have it.
6. Cowtown Cat: Strong performance in Illinois Derby but who did he beat? If loose on the lead very dangerous but I do not expect him to get loose.
7. Street Sense – won over this track, against many of the same horses, with a widening margin of victory. He still has the same closing style that looked great in the BC Juvenile. After many said he would bounce on the Tampa Bay Derby effort, came back and ran a gutsy race in the Blue Grass. Tough horse. Bred for the distance. I can’t see jumping off him now.

8. Hard Spun: Lifetime 5 out of 6 wins is very impressive. Despite this, I feel like he will sneak into the starting gate largely unappreciated. His one dull effort was a rough trip, still finished fourth. Got back on track in the Lane’s End. Very interesting if his odds get north of 6:1.

9. Liquidity – No wins since maiden win. Always runs an even race. Looks a lot like Giacomo on form, but will not have the race handed to him by a crazy pace. Should not factor.
10. Teuflesberg – Will be part of the pace. Couldn’t hold it in the Blue Grass with very soft fractions. No reason to expect it today.
11. Bwana Bull – Of all the 50-1 horses, he looks the best due to his decent late kick. Has some excuses in his missed chances. But he is still a legit 50-1 shot.
12. Nobiz Like Shobiz: Can’t seem to beat Scat Daddy but has beaten many others here. Won the Wood Memorial fairly easily to keep string of triple digit Beyers alive. Will be too close to the lead for me. Should have company all the way.
13. Sam P: Nice steady closing style. Should make steady progress throughout. Just not fast enough to factor in the superfecta.
14. Scat Daddy: My sleeper selection. This guy comes in off a two race win streak in FOY and Florida Derby. Running style is excellent to come from a wee bit back. Always runs his race and should love the extra distance. I believe he will be overlooked in the wagering and should go off at 8:1 or higher.
15. Tiago – A much better closer than his half brother Giacomo. It would still be a stretch to win the Derby off just one non-maiden win. I’ll have him in some of my exotics.
16. Circular Quay: Fantastic deep closer, son of Thunder Gulch who has been a decent Derby sire. Some concern about the layoff but workouts have been solid. Strong possibility to hit the board. Will likely have to pass 16 horses to win, but this one could do it.
17. Stormello – Factors in the pace, but not in the superfecta. Has lost it in the stretch numerous times.
18. Any Given Saturday: Seemed to finish better when coming from further back, and against weaker foes. Never missed the board in six lifetime starts. Running style puts him close to the pace. Tough horse but tough to bet also.
19. Dominican: Three wins on polytrack, no wins on dirt. Churchill is dirt. Decent closing style. Horrible post position but at least he is a closer so the impact is not as bad.
20. Great Hunter: Was supposed to prove himself in the Blue Grass but instead ran closer to the lead than he was supposed to and then faded. That one is a toss out, but behind it there is not much to make you want to ignore other horses and drop your money on him. Breeding says he will be running late. Outside post is tough.

Street Sense is still the smartest kid in the class, even if you think this is a pretty dull class. His performance over this track in November was impressive. He is training well and got a great post draw. His peers have closed the gap some since the Juvenile but everything still points to him.

The race will set up well for the late closers, as a result, exotics should have a healthy dose of them mixed in. Of the closers, Circular Quay is the strongest and factors in the exotics heavily.

Of the stalking types, the most impressive have been Scat Daddy and Hard Spun. It will take a very strong performance from either one of these to hold to the wire, so I will not emphasize them on top in exotics.

Wise guy bet is actually not all that wise - Scat Daddy. He has run very well in all his races and those that he didn’t win he had legitimate excuses. If he can get a clean trip, he could be better than anyone thinks.

Win: Street Sense

Exacta: Box 7,8,14,16,

Trifecta: Box 2,7,14,16

Trifecta: Box 7,14,16,19

Pick Three: Use 7,14,16

Dad’s Value Play: Circular Quay

Liam’s Long Shot Play: Scat Daddy